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The Oakland Athletics and the Chicago White Sox will begin a four-game series on Monday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Athletics-White Sox prediction and pick.
This is a hugely important series for both teams. The Athletics have been nipping at the heels of the Houston Astros in the AL West all season long, and they're finally in striking distance. Oakland is only 2.5 games out of first place, so a strong showing in this series and a couple of Houston losses would give them the division lead. The White Sox are already firmly entrenched in first place in the AL Central, so this series doesn't hold much weight in terms of playoff implications. However, Chicago would love to see a series victory against another playoff-caliber team like the Athletics. Keep that in mind when making an Athletics White Sox prediction.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's series opener.
MLB Odds: Athletics-White Sox Odds
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Oakland Athletics ML (-110)
Chicago White Sox ML (+100)
Over 9 runs (-122)
Under 9 runs (+102)
Why The Athletics Could Cover The Spread
Oakland is still one of the most overlooked teams in the MLB despite winning eight of their last ten games. The Athletics typically win games by leaning on their strong pitchers and bullpen, but that hasn't been the case recently. Oakland has scored more than four runs in eight of their last ten games, making them one of the hottest offensive teams in baseball. They should be able to continue that offensive streak against Chicago starter Dallas Kuechel, a good point to absorb when considering an Athletics White Sox prediction.
Kuechel has had a bit of a disappointing season. He's posted a 4.51 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP on the season, but those numbers get significantly worse in Kuechel's last seven starts. Over that span, the lefty has earned a 5.72 ERA, clearly indicating a cold streak for the former Houston Astro. To make matters even worse for Kuechel, the Athletics are a much better offensive team against left-handed pitching. Oakland sees all of their major batting stats rise whenever they play a lefty as opposed to a righty.
The Athletics will send out pitcher Frankie Montas to make the start in this one. Montas has had a good year, but his recent stretch of games has been even more impressive than his season-long body of work. Over his last seven starts Montas has put up a 2.49 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Those are obviously unsustainable numbers, but it's certainly possible that the hot streak continues for one more start.
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago is one of the few truly elite offenses in baseball, a cornerstone component of an Athletics White Sox prediction you might be inclined to make. They rank in the top 10 in the league in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. Helping the White Sox in their case against Montas is their strong play at home. The White Sox improve on their batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage whenever they play at home.
Montas also has a tendency to give up hard-hit balls, as he's allowed a barrel percentage of 9% on the year. The righty has also given up a hard-hit percentage of 43.8%, another abnormally high number. Those two stats make the White Sox a tough matchup for Montas, as Chicago has eight players in their lineup who barrel the ball up at a high rate.
Dallas Kuechel may be in the midst of a season that has fallen short of expectations so far, but he still has some statistical edges over the Athletics. He's a much better pitcher when he plays at home, with his opponent's batting average dropping from .273 to .241. Kuechel also doesn't allow very many hard-hit balls, which should help keep the ball in the yard against an Oakland team that has been sneakily good at power hitting.
Final Athletics-White Sox Prediction & Pick
This game is pretty much a coin flip, but the White Sox are the pick. They match up well against Frankie Montas, and there's reason to believe that Kuechel can put together a good showing. The over is also in play in this game.
FINAL PICK: Chicago White Sox ML (+100)
