The Final Four is here and four of the best teams in college basketball are heading to Indianapolis to compete for a national championship. On one side of the bracket, the top seeds took care of business and now Arizona and Michigan will stage a heavyweight clash on Saturday night for a spot in the title game.
On the other side, top seeds Florida and Duke went by the wayside, clearing the path for UConn and Illinois to get to the Final Four. Dan Hurley and the Huskies are seeking their third national title in four seasons after taking down Furman, UCLA and Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight. In the regional final, UConn erased a 19-point deficit against Duke before Braylon Mullins gave it the East Region crown with a long 3-pointer to give the Huskies a 73-72 win.
Illinois didn't have to take out Florida to get to the Final Four; Iowa took care of that in the upset of the tournament during the first weekend. However, Brad Underwood and company did have to beat No. 2 seed Houston, in Houston, in the Sweet 16 before taking down that red-hot Iowa squad in the Elite Eight.
UConn and Illinois is a rematch of a November non-conference game at Madison Square Garden, won by the Huskies 74-61. However, both teams have evolved since then, but especially Illinois. Most notably, star point guard Keaton Wagler is the main focal point of the operation for the Illini now after splitting time at that position earlier in the season.
Despite the loss earlier in the season, there are a few areas where the Illini should be able to get an edge in the rematch against UConn as they seek a spot in the national title game.
Illinois doesn't turn the ball over
Not turning the basketball over is always important to winning big games, but it will be especially crucial in this kind of game. Illinois and UConn both play at a snail's pace, which means possessions and easy buckets in transition will be at a premium. Coming into this game, Illinois ranks 296th in KenPom's adjusted tempo, while UConn is even slower at 319th.
Brad Underwood has made a name for himself recruiting pros from overseas, and the primary way that shows up is with how his team values the basketball. Illinois turns the ball over on just 13.1% of its possessions, the eighth-best mark in the nation. UConn has a very stout defense, but it doesn't have the kind that should rush Illinois into those turnovers; UConn takes the ball away on just 18% of its possessions, good for 96th nationally.
When Illinois isn't turning the ball over, it means that it is getting plenty of looks at the basket. That is part of the blueprint for this Illini team. It ranks 15th in the nation in 3-point rate and third in offensive rebound rate, in large part thanks to a monster front line featuring Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic. The math is on Illinois' side on the offensive end, and it uses that to its advantage.
On the other side of the ball, the Illini doesn't force many turnovers either (365th in forced turnover rate). However, UConn is only average at taking care of the ball, so Illinois should be able to get some takeaways here and there.
Free-throw disparity should favor the Illini
One of the other big factors that can swing a game one way or another, especially in a game with a low tempo and not a lot of possessions, is a big free-throw disparity. This game has the recipe to have just that.
UConn has been dominant on the interior in this tournament, but big man Tarris Reed Jr. is the only real force on the inside for the Huskies. He is quite the force, having notched 87 points, 54 rebounds and nine blocks in four NCAA Tournament games, but Illinois has multiple bodies to gain the advantage on the interior. The Ivisic brothers are two of many big bodies that Illinois can play, which makes it very hard to score at the rim.
Now, you may think that the Illini foul a lot because of its size on the interior and its ability to protect the basket, but that's far from the truth. In fact, Illinois comes into the Final Four with the best defensive free throw rate allowed in the nation, per Torvik. Illinois only gets to the line at an average rate, in large part because it takes a ton of 3-pointers, but that may not matter in this match.
Free-throw rate stats have not been friendly to UConn at all this season. The Huskies foul a ton and rank just 307th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, but they also only get to the line at the 306th-highest rate in the nation. While he has improved on this issue this season compared to the 2024-25 campaign, Reed can be prone to some wild fouls that can get him on the bench for an extended period of time.
Simply put, UConn can't afford to have that happen in this game. The Huskies don't have the depth up front that Illinois does to survive foul trouble if it does become an issue, and Underwood's squad will force the issue inside and on the offensive glass. In a game with limited possessions, Illinois' ability to not send UConn to the free-throw line combined with UConn's tendency to foul a lot could be the difference that sends the Illini to the championship game.
