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The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet on Friday night for the first matchup of a three game series between two AL teams looking to make a playoff push. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Blue Jays-Mariners prediction and pick.
Toronto currently stands at 62-52 and is 31-28 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Blue Jays game so far this season, you’d be up $30 on the money line.
Seattle currently stands at 61-55 and is 35-24 at T-Mobile Park. If you put $100 on every single Mariners game so far this season, you’d be up $2,037 on the money line.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Blue Jays-Mariners odds.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Mariners Odds
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Toronto Blue Jays ML (-160)
Seattle Mariners ML (+150)
Over 9 Runs (+100)
Under 9 Runs (-120)
Why The Blue Jays Could Win This Game
On national left-handers day, the Blue Jays send one of the top lefties in the game this season to the mound: Robbie Ray.
Ray has been excellent in the past two months. Over seven starts in July and August, he holds an ERA of 1.85 and has struck out 46 batters in 43.2 innings.
As a pitcher that has racked up strikeouts his entire career, the Mariners are a perfect matchup for Ray. They have struck out the fifth most times in the major leagues, and only draw the 16th most free passes. Ray should be good for at least six or seven K's tonight.
Add in the fact that the Mariners hold the second lowest batting average in the league and actually hit worse at home than on the road, and it would be surprising to see Ray give up anything more then a couple runs tonight.
Offensively, the Blue Jays have been one of the best teams in the league. They lead the MLB in team OPS, are second in home runs, and third in total RBI's.
This is bad news for Chris Flexen, who takes the mound for the Mariners tonight. Flexen has struggled with the long ball of late, allowing four home runs in his last 15 innings pitched.
The last time Flexen pitched against the Jays this season, he allowed three earned in five innings of work. However, he only struck out two batters and allowed seven hits. Flexen stranded a runner in scoring position in four out of five innings of work.
This time around, the righty might not be so lucky.
Why The Mariners Could Win This Game
After a very solid start to the season, Chris Flexen has reverted back to being a replacement level starting pitcher. However, there are some encouraging signs in this matchup with the Blue Jays that should give Mariners backers hope.
For one, Flexen is very good at limiting free-passes. He's only walked 25 men in 125.1 innings pitched this year, and the Blue Jays draw the sixth least walks in the league. This will make the Jays work for their runs tonight, and string together multiple hits to truly do damage against Flexen.
Secondly, while his home run rate spiked in his last three outings, Flexen has not been shelled by the homer all year. He's only allowed 13 homers on the season, and has kept slugging teams in check. In 23.0 innings pitched against teams that are top five in home runs, Flexen has allowed only one homer.
He might not have the electric arm Robbie Ray does, but Flexen is more than capable of giving the Mariners some quality innings tonight.
At the plate, the Mariners are most definitely outmatched. Their best hope is for Flexen to give them five or six innings, and then hand the ball to a bullpen that has only allowed two earned runs in their last 11 innings of work.
There's a reason why the Mariners have one of the best records in baseball in one run games. They scratch and claw to get two to three runs on the board, and then let guys like Diego Castillo and J.T. Chargois (3.00 ERA for both) handle the rest.
Don't be surprised if Seattle can pull out another close one tonight against a Jays offense that's scored four or less runs in three of their last four matchups.
Final Blue Jays-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The under has now cashed in eight of the Mariners last nine games, mostly due to the Mariners inability to put up crooked numbers and consistently solid starting pitching. With Flexen and Ray on the mound, this trend should continue. It's unlikely the Mariners do much damage to Ray, and Flexen has been one of the Mariners best starters all year. I'll take the under and count on both starters to provide quality outings.
FINAL BLUE JAYS-MARINERS PREDICTION: UNDER 9 RUNS (-105)
