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The Toronto Blue Jays will face the Houston Astros as the teams continue a three-game series at Minute Maid Park on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Astros prediction and pick.
The Blue Jays rallied from a 3-0 deficit to edge out the Astros 4-3 in the first game of the series on Friday night. Yuli Guriel put the Astros up in the third inning with an RBI single that drove in Jeremy Pena and Michael Brantley. Houston led 3-1 heading into the fifth inning when Toronto made its move. Santiago Espinal smacked a 2-1 pitch from Justin Verlander into the seats in left field for a solo home run, his first of the season. Then, Bradley Zimmer whacked an opposite-field homer to left field to tie the game. Hence, it was his first home run and hit as a member of the Jays. Finally, Matt Chapman broke the tie in the ninth inning as he hammered an RBI double to drive in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Ross Stripling only lasted four innings for the Jays, allowing three earned runs on five hits. However, the Toronto bullpen was majestic, not allowing a run. Ultimately, Jordan Romano came close in the ninth as he allowed runners at the corners with one out. Despite that, Romano shut the door down by striking out the final two hitters to preserve the win. Verlander pitched efficiently, throwing six innings while allowing three earned runs to earn the no-decision.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Blue Jays-Astros odds:
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Astros Odds
Blue Jays: -1.5 (+134)
Astros: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
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Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Toronto will go with Alek Manoah on the hill. He is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 2022. Furthermore, Manoah has lasted six innings in each start, establishing himself as the best Toronto pitcher early in the season. He allowed two earned runs and four hits in his last start. Consequently, the only blemish was a home run. Today, Manoah will have a difficult test facing an Astros lineup that is still dangerous, despite the early-season struggles. Houston ranks in the bottom ten in batting average, on-base percentage, runs and slugging percentage. However, the Astros are eighth in home runs. Houston can take a pitcher deep at any given moment. This is Manoah's first time facing the Astros.
The Jays would love a similar effort by their bullpen. Romano has been shaky over two games. He allowed two runs and barely hung on for a save against the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday. Then, he nearly blew the save last night. Toronto might be wise to rest Romano for today's game if they find themselves in a save situation. The Jays could use Guerrero to help put the game away. So far, Guerrero is hitting .320 with five home runs and 11 RBIs.
The Jays will cover the spread if Manoah continues to give them a great outing and if he attacks the Houston lineup early. In addition to Manoah, Toronto needs its bullpen to pitch well and hold down a still-dangerous Houston lineup capable of slugging the ball out of the stadium. Lastly, the Jays will cover the spread if Guerrero can add to his highlight reel and keep his amazing start to the season going.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston will send Jose Urquidy to the mound today. Now, he hopes to bounce back from a poor start where he lasted four innings, allowing six earned runs on eight hits. The common denominator for Urquidy has been home runs allowed. Thus, he has allowed at least one in each start. The key will be to keep his pitches down and not let Toronto hitters clobber them out of Minute Maid Park. Urquidy faced the Jays twice in 2021. In one start, he lasted 4 2/3 innings while allowing six earned runs on nine hits. In another start, Urquidy allowed two earned runs on four hits through seven innings. He gave up two home runs in each game.
Ultimately, the Houston offense must give him run support. Jose Altuve is injured, so someone else must step up. Thus, Guriel and Yordan Alvarez should pick up the slack. Alvarez went 0 for 4 with a strikeout on Friday and must rebound. He is currently hitting .172 and has struggled in 2022. The bullpen must additionally do a better job.
The Astros will cover the spread if Urquidy gives them a great start and keeps the ball in the yard. Additionally, the offense needs to pick it up and convert on opportunities. Houston left six runners on base last night. Finally, the bullpen cannot lose the game in the later innings.
Final Blue Jays-Astros Prediction & Pick
Toronto edged Houston out last night. The Jays do have the better starter statistically. However, the Astros are a difficult team to beat in Houston. They will come out energized and ready to strike. At the very least, expect another close game. The Astros will cover the spread.
Final Blue Jays-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros +1.5 (-162)
