Subscribe
Follow Us
The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Cleveland Guardians. Check out our MLB odds series, for our Blue Jays-Guardians prediction and pick.
The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays against Aaron Civale for the Guardians, a cornerstone part of sizing up the MLB odds for the first installment of this four-game series in Cleveland.
Berrios has a 4.13 ERA, but before you conclude that he is struggling, it's a little more nuanced than that. Berrios had a disastrous first start of the season against Texas one month ago. He gave up four runs and got only one out. That's why his ERA is over four. Since then, he has been very solid, going at least five innings in his next four starts and never giving up more than three runs in those starts. He faced the Yankees and Astros once, the Red Sox twice. Toronto won all four games and Berrios picked up two wins. He is 2-0 on the year. He did give up some hard-hit balls in his second start against the Red Sox, but keep in mind that he faced Boston a few days earlier.
Civale has a 10.67 ERA for Cleveland. He has been hammered in his four starts, giving up at least four runs in all of those outings and six runs in two of them. The Guardians really need him to improve if they are going to make a serious run at the American League Central title or the American League wild card spot.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Blue Jays-Guardians MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Guardians Odds
Blue Jays: -1.5 (+112)
Guardians: +1.5 (-134)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
When making a Blue Jays Guardians prediction, you need to realize that Aaron Civale of Cleveland simply hasn't shown that he can get major-league hitters out on a consistent basis. When a starting pitcher gives up at least four runs in four consecutive starts, that tells you he can't overpower hitters and put them away on 1-2 or 2-2 counts. Civale lacks the wipeout pitches which greatly increase a pitcher's margin for error. Civale has been fooling no one this season, and that's the main reason to think Toronto can win this game by a pile of runs.
The other part of the Blue Jays Guardians odds which is noticeable is that the total is low. Given how many good hitters the Jays have, that total might be surprising. Shouldn't it be a run or two higher? Well, Toronto hasn't hit that well this season. Yet, the Jays have already played 20 games against teams which made the playoffs in 2021: seven games against the Yankees, seven against the Red Sox, six against the Astros. Now Toronto gets to face weaker opposition. A bust-out game would not be surprising at all.
Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
In the first month of the season, the Guardians split their opening series against the Royals and then didn't split another series until earlier this week, when they split a two-game series (condensed into a doubleheader after a rainout) against the Padres. The Guardians have been a feast-or-famine team. They swept the White Sox, Athletics, and Reds and got swept by the Giants, Yankees, and Angels. That kind of pattern is unlikely to continue, so if you think the Guardians are going to get crushed by the Blue Jays, maybe reconsider that idea for a Blue Jays Guardians pick.
The other point to remember is that Toronto is without Teoscar Hernandez, who was injured three weeks ago. The Jays really miss his bat, and their offense doesn't have as much depth with him on the shelf.
Final Blue Jays-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The easy pick is to take the Blue Jays, but they have been struggling at the plate without Teoscar Hernandez. They might mash against a bad pitcher, Civale, but the better bet is that Berrios shuts down Cleveland's hitters and the game is a low-scoring affair, maybe 5-2 or 4-3.
Final Blue Jays-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5
