Subscribe
Follow Us
The Atlanta Braves look to win the four-game series against the San Diego Padres as the two NL teams finish their set at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Padres prediction and pick.
The Braves defeated the Padres 5-2 on Saturday to win their second game in a row. Saturday's contest began identical to the way Friday's game started. Ozzie Albies cracked a 94 MPH fastball from Nick Martinez to right field for a solo home run. It was his fourth of the season and third of the series. It gave the Braves a 1-0 lead immediately.
The Padres answered back in the bottom of the second inning. Jurickson Profar flipped a towering shot to deep right field that landed just inside the foul pole for a home run. It was his third home run in 2022, and it tied the game up at one. Later, Manny Pina delivered an RBI single to give the Braves the 2-1 lead. It would be an inning later when the Braves continued their scoring. Hence, Matt Olson lifted an outside-corner pitch to the opposite field for a solo home run. The home run was the second this season for Olson, and it put the Braves up 3-1. One batter later, Marcell Ozuna sliced an inside bottom-corner pitch to deep left for a solo home run. It was his third on the season and lifted the Braves to a 4-1 lead.
Ian Anderson went 5 2/3 innings, allowing one earned run on two hits with seven strikeouts to pick up the win. Also, Kenley Jensen shut the door down in the ninth for the second day in a row to pick up the save. The Braves are 5-5 and in second place in the NL East. Likewise, the Padres are 5-5 and in fourth place in the NL West.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Padres MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds
Braves: +1.5 (-194) ML (+114)
Padres: -1.5 (+160) ML (-134)
Over: 8 (-102)
Under 8: (-120)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta will go with Bryce Elder on the hill. Elder is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA this season. He tossed 5 2/3 innings allowing three earned runs on six hits. However, he gave up two home runs. Now, Elder looks for consistent production. He must find the strike zone and locate his pitches. Additionally, he has to keep Manny Machado and the Padres hitters off-kilter.
The Braves will face Yu Darvish and hope they can strike at him early. Albies has crushed the Padres during the series, hitting three home runs. Additionally, two of the home runs have come in the first inning. The best way to get Darvish off his game is to crush his pitches into the stands. Albies has shown he can do this as he is on a three-game streak of home runs. The Braves benefitted yesterday from home runs by Albies, Olson, and Ozuna. Hence, these three sluggers are the key to covering the spread. The Braves must find a way to bring their runners home. They left seven runners on base yesterday. Thus, the Braves have to drive them home to ensure victory.
The Braves will cover the spread if they can get a decent outing out of Elder. Additionally, he needs run support, and the Braves must get to Darvish. Lastly, taking advantage of runners on base will ensure that they do that.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego looks to avoid the series loss and will go with Darvish. Darvish is 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA. He pitched horrifically in his last start, lasting 1 2/3 innings and allowing nine earned runs on eight hits. One of those hits was a home run. Hence, Darvish looks to rebound.
Darvish faced the Braves on July 20, 2021. He allowed two earned runs on four hits through 5 2/3 innings. However, the home run came from Freddie Freeman, who is no longer on the team. Now, Darvish looks to replicate that outing and possibly improve upon it. He must limit his pitch count and not allow free bases. He walked two hitters in that game against the Braves, and he must master his discipline. Darvish has to keep the ball in the yard and not get clobbered by the three sluggers.
Additionally, the Padres need to hit the ball better. They lost 5-2 on both Friday and Saturday. Conversely, they erupted for 12 runs in the first game of the series. Machado needs help from everyone in the lineup, and that includes Profar and Eric Hosmer. Hosmer is excelling at the plate, as he is hitting .462. He collected four hits on Thursday, yet is 1 for 7 over the past two games. The Padres will cover the spread if Darvish delivers and the lineup performs.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick
Atlanta will seek to win the series. However, San Diego is sending a pitcher they once considered their ace. The game might go down to the wire, but a split series seems inevitable. The Padres win the game and even the series, sending their fans home happy on Sunday night.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres Moneyline (-134)
