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The Atlanta Braves take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Braves Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Charlie Morton goes to the hill for the Braves, while Humberto Castellanos gets the call for the Diamondbacks.
Charlie Morton has a 5.28 ERA. He has allowed fewer than two runs in just two of his nine starts this season. He has allowed fewer than three runs in only three of his nine starts. Morton gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings in his most recent appearance on May 25 against the Phillies. Morton has allowed only five home runs in 44 1/3 innings pitched, but he has allowed 48 hits, more than one per inning. He simply doesn't get opposing hitters to hit the ball softly. Too many balls are being hit solidly against Morton's pitching. He doesn't get hitters off balance in 2022 and is not creating the amount of soft, weak contact he needs in order to be effective. This is one component to be studied when making a Braves Diamondbacks prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Humberto Castellanos has a 5.22 ERA. He allowed six runs in four innings in his most recent start last Thursday, May 26, against the Dodgers. He has allowed 14 runs in 20 innings pitched in his last four starts, and 19 runs in his last six starts over 27 2/3 innings. Castellanos is a weak link in the Arizona starting rotation. The D-Backs have overachieved this season, staying near the .500 mark and being very much in the National League wild card hunt. However, if they are going to make a real run at the playoffs, Castellanos has to be much better than what he has shown thus far. Keep this in mind when making a Braves Diamondbacks pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Braves-Diamondbacks Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 9 (-106)
Under: 9 (-114)
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Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
The Braves got thumped on Monday in the first game of this series, but they had a rookie making his MLB debut against Zach Gallen, one of Arizona's better starting pitchers. In this game, the Braves have the advantage in the pitching matchup. Charlie Morton hasn't been good this season, but Humberto Castellanos is serving up very hittable pitches in the middle of the strike zone and should be roughed up by Atlanta's bats. In what should be a high-scoring game, the Braves have the offensive firepower needed to score a big number and cover the spread.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After beating the Braves on Monday, the Diamondbacks have achieved a reset after getting swept in four straight games by the Dodgers. That game is exactly what this team needed. Moreover, the fact that manager Torey Lovullo got ejected from that game for standing up for his starting pitcher (Gallen) will motivate the Diamondbacks and bring out their best. Charlie Morton has had a very disappointing 2022 season thus far. Arizona can slug its way past Morton and overcome Castellanos's limitations, reshaping the calculus of a Braves Diamondbacks pick.
Final Braves-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
If you want to make a play on this game, the best one is the total. Two pitchers with ERAs over five runs means you should expect a game with 10 or more total runs scored. This is the best angle in a game where picking a moneyline winner is tricky.
Final Braves-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Over 9
