Subscribe
Follow Us
The Atlanta Braves continue a four-game series with the San Diego Padres on Saturday afternoon in Southern California. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Padres prediction and pick.
The Braves defeated the Padres 5-2 on Friday night to even the series at one game. Ozzie Albies started things off by whacking the first pitch from Mackenzie Gore into the stands in left field to put the Braves up 1-0 in the second inning. Later, Marcell Ozuna added to the lead with an RBI single to make it 2-0 Braves in the fourth inning. However, the Padres came back in the fifth inning. Ha-Seong Kim clipped an RBI single to cut the deficit to 2-1. Then, Manny Machado answered with an RBI double to drive Kim home to tie the game. Consequently, the Braves broke the tie in the eighth inning with a three-run inning. First, Adam Duvall smacked an RBI double to drive in two runners. Then, Duvall scored on a wild pitch to make it 5-2 Braves.
Kyle Wright tossed five innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits with nine strikeouts. Additionally, the bullpen performed admirably, shutting down the Padres for three innings before handing it off to Kenley Jensen. He pitched a perfect ninth inning for the save. Meanwhile, Gore tossed 5 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs on three hits. The bullpen pitched efficiently until floundering in the eighth inning. The Braves enter the game at 4-5, while the Padres are 5-4.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Padres MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds
Braves: +1.5 (-220)
Padres: -1.5 (+180)
Over: 8 (-118)
Under 8 (-104)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta will go with Ian Anderson on the hill. He is 0-1 with a 16.88 ERA in 2022. Anderson bombed in his first start, allowing five earned runs on three hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds. In addition to the hits, he walked five batters. Thus, he is looking to rebound. Anderson has always struggled with walks in his brief career. He walked batters at a 10 percent rate in 2021. He has a devastating fastball and changeup that can fool hitters when it lands. It is all about execution with Anderson.
Anderson must locate the strike zone and not get himself into early holes. He is at his best when he gets ahead of the count and puts hitters away early. It propelled him to a 9-5 record with a 3.58 ERA in 2021. Now, he must show that he can bounce back from an awful start and take down a Padres lineup that will be without Fernando Tatis Jr. until the summer. Machado is the most dangerous hitter in the lineup with no Tatis around. If Anderson can control Machado, he has a better chance of dominating the rest of the lineup. Additionally, the Braves need Albies and Matt Olson to excel. Albies did his job last night, but Olson went 0 for 3. The Braves need both to rise to the occasion.
The Braves will cover the spread if Anderson can locate the strike zone and get ahead of hitters. Additionally, he needs to mow down hitters and cut down on the walks. The walks killed him in his first start, and reducing them would help his chances of succeeding here. Lastly, the Braves need their bats to awaken. Albies and Olson can provide the pop to get Atlanta's offense going.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego will go with Nick Martinez. He is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA with the Padres since returning from his 4-year stint in Japan. Now, Martinez gets to see if he still has it. He tossed five innings allowing one earned run on five hits to earn the no-decision in his first start against the San Francisco Giants. He will need to replicate that performance as he faces the World Series Champions. Correspondingly, the Padres need a better performance from their bullpen.
The bullpen allowed the Braves to win the game last night on hits and a wild pitch. Also, they could not put the Braves away as Atlanta did all its damage with two outs. The relievers must control their pitches and keep Atlanta off balance. Additionally, Machado needs to repeat what he did last night. He has had an excellent series going 7-for-9 with three RBIs. Machado needs to continue his excellent performance, and he needs support from his teammates.
The Padres will cover the spread if their pitching holds up and they keep the hitters off balance. Lastly, Machado needs help, and the Padres need to jump out early against Anderson.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick
The series is tied at one, and both teams will look to snag the series lead. The Padres blew out the Braves on Thursday, while Atlanta covered the spread and won last night. Ultimately, it will come down to which team performs better offensively. The Padres have performed better in that aspect and will continue the trend here.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres: -1.5 (+180)
