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The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Chicago Cubs. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Cubs prediction and pick.
Eric Lauer gets the ball for the Brewers, while Justin Steele takes the rubber for the Cubs.
Eric Lauer has a 2.31 ERA. He has allowed more than two runs in only two of his eight starts this season. He has allowed seven home runs in 46 2/3 innings pitched. Lauer has given the Brewers and manager Craig Counsell everything they could realistically want. He is one of several reasons that the Brewers have established themselves as the team to beat in the National League Central and are once again a frontline contender for the National League pennant this year. Other pitchers on this staff get more headlines and publicity, but Lauer's role is essential, just as it will be in October. Keep this in mind when making a Brewers Cubs pick.
Justin Steele has a 5.40 ERA. He entered his last start with a 3.82 ERA but then gave up seven runs in two innings on May 26 against the Reds. This would seem to make a Brewers Cubs prediction fairly straightforward. He has walked at least two batters in seven of his last eight starts, and only one of those eight starts lasted more than five innings. Steele's walks-per-nine-innings rate is not very good.
Steele will need to demonstrate greater command of the strike zone if he is to give the Cubs the consistent quality they will need in order to make an upward push in the standings and change the calculus of the Brewers Cubs odds over the course of the season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Cubs MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Cubs Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+120)
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-144)
Over: 9.5 (-118)
Under: 9.5 (-104)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
The Brewers are the better team. They showed why on Monday, sweeping a day-night doubleheader and winning two close games with very different scores. They won a 7-6 slugfest in the opener and a 3-1 pitching duel in the nightcap. They have Josh Hader, the best closer in baseball, and they have a balanced lineup which is providing a lot of contributions. The Lauer-Steele pitching matchup is clearly in Milwaukee's favor. The Brewers have to be very confident about their chances in this game, knowing how consistent Lauer has been for them, all while Steele has regressed in recent weeks and is not an in-form pitcher right now, searching for a rhythm he has lost.
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
After getting swept in a doubleheader on Monday, the Cubs know this game is important. They will attack it with urgency. Over 162 games, baseball teams go through all sorts of ups and downs. One day's disaster is followed by the next day's rebound. The Cubs aren't as good as the Brewers, but they played a lot of deficient baseball the past few days and are going to be better in this game. Lauer, as good as he has been, is not a dominant pitcher. Regression to the mean is a distinct possibility for him in this game. A Brewers Cubs prediction isn't as clear-cut as some might think. This is a good bounce-back spot for the Cubs.
Final Brewers-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The bounce-back position for the Cubs makes this a stay-away game. Milwaukee is a much better team, but after sweeping a double-dip on Monday, the Brewers won't have as much urgency as the Cubs. If you insist on making a pick, take the Brew Crew, but it's not a great spot in which to pick them.
Final Brewers-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5
