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The struggling San Francisco Giants look to rebound on Wednesday night against the Milwaukee Brewers as their NL West lead shrinks perilously low. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 84-48 and is 42-21 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $2,661 on the moneyline.
Milwaukee currently stands at 81-52 and is 45-23 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Brewers game so far this season, you’d be up $1,093 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Brewers-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Giants Odds
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Milwaukee Brewers ML (+161)
San Francisco Giants ML (-175)
Over 7.5 Runs (-114)
Under 7.5 Runs (-106)
Why The Brewers Could Win This Game
The Brewers are the best road team in baseball. They've now won seven of their last 10 road games and continue to mash away from Milwaukee.
They've scored four or more runs in seven of their last 10 road games, including a tear of 15 runs over their last three matchups. This could spell trouble for Kevin Gausman, who has been struggling of late.
Like opposing pitcher Brett Anderson, Gausman is currently in his worst stretch of the season. In his first 10 starts, Gausman allowed more than one earned run only once. In his next 10, he allowed more than one earned five times. In his last six starts, Gausman has given up multiple runs five times. His ERA in that six-game span is 3.60, and he has walked nine batters in only 36.0 innings.
Gausman's loss of control will be hugely beneficial for the Brewers. As a team, they've drawn the seventh-most walks in the major leagues. The Brewers also see the seventh-most pitches per plate appearance and the eighth-most 2-0 counts.
As long as the Brewers show some patience, they'll continue to do damage against Gausman.
On the mound, Milwaukee is counting on Anderson to pitch more like his old self than what we've seen recently. The good news for the Brewers is the lefty has shown he is capable of quieting this Giants lineup. About three weeks ago, Anderson pitched five innings against the Giants and allowed only one earned run, a solo shot to Darin Ruf.
Anderson will be helped out by the fact that the Giants have shown less pop against left-handers all season. San Francisco's OPS and home run rate drop against southpaws.
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Anderson doesn't have to be perfect for the Brewers to get the win. As long as he avoids getting shelled in the first three innings, the Brewers have a fighting chance for the rest of the game.
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
As the best team in baseball for nearly the entire season, the Giants aren't used to doing much losing. For only the third time this season, they are on a three-game losing streak. Kevin Gausman is ready to ensure that doesn't become four.
Gausman has been the Giants' best pitcher for most of the year. The Giants have won in 17 of his 26 starts, and he has pitched to a 2.49 ERA over 152 innings.
One of Gausman's strengths all year has been the ability to rack up strikeouts. He has struck out at least six batters in 17 of his 27 starts and has amassed 176 Ks on the season. The righty's ability to miss barrels will be key against a Brewers team that strikes out quite a bit (seventh-most in the league) and struggles to stay off pitches.
The heart of the Brewers' lineup contains Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, and Rowdy Tellez. All three of those players' chase rates (35.8%, 30%, and 32.4%, respectively) are significantly higher than the MLB average (28.3%). When the meat of the order faces a guy good at missing bats, this offense could be in trouble.
At the plate, San Francisco faces soft-tossing lefty Brett Anderson. As noted, Anderson is in the midst of his worst run this season.
In his last three starts, the southpaw failed to pitch more than 5 1/3 innings in each and allowed a total of 12 earned runs in that span. His worst outing of the season was just two starts ago against the Pirates. He allowed six earned runs to a poor Pittsburgh offense.
It doesn't appear it'll get better for Anderson. Historically, the members of this Giants lineup have had his number. In 55 plate appearances against Anderson, the current Giants have recorded 16 hits and three home runs for a combined batting average of .291.
When you take into account that the Giants have won two of their last three games against lefty starters and tagged those starters for seven earned runs in 14 innings, the San Francisco offense looks to be in great shape for this one.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
While the moneyline odds for this game are right on the money in terms of fairness, the line on the total provides a juicy opportunity. We usually only see a total of 7.5 on games where two dominant aces are pitching, or there is a subpar offense in the mix. Neither of these factors are at play in this game. Gausman is a great pitcher, but his outings of late show he is vulnerable to at least a few runs of damage. Anderson should easily give up a few runs of his own. By the time we get to the sixth inning, there should be about six runs on the board. The last 10 times a Giants game has been set with a total of 7.5 runs or lower, the over has gone 7-3. I'm backing that trend to continue.
FINAL BREWERS-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: OVER 7.5 RUNS (-114)
