The Milwaukee Brewers begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Phillies prediction and pick.

 

The Brewers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2 on Wednesday. The game had no score until the bottom of the second inning when Rowdy Tellez stepped up to the plate. Then, Tellez smacked a solo home run into the upper decks to put the Brewers up 1-0. It was his third homer of the season. Later, Keston Hiura crushed a three-run dinger to right field to push the Brewers up 4-0. Starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff pitched efficiently, tossing six scoreless innings while allowing one hit. The bullpen held on, allowing two runs in the eighth. Ultimately, Josh Hader closed it out in the ninth for his sixth save of 2022. The Brewers are 8-5 and in a first-place tie in the NL Central.

The Phillies salvaged a win over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday to avoid a sweep. Down 2-0 in the fourth inning, Nick Castellanos slugged a solo home run off an inside pitch from German Marquez to center to cut the deficit to 2-1. It was his third homer of 2022. Later, Alec Bohm slammed a two-run bomb in the same inning to put the Phillies ahead. The Rockies took the lead back until the Phillies responded in the sixth.

Kyle Schwarber laced a 68-foot shot off an 0-2 pitch from Marquez to tie the game. This was his fourth of the season. The Phillies tacked on two more runs in the seventh before Johan Camargo blasted a three-run shot to deep left to put the Phillies up 9-4. The Phillies are 5-8 and in a fourth-place tie in the NL East.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Phillies MLB odds:

MLB Odds: Brewers-Phillies Odds

Brewers: +1.5 (-200) ML (+108)

Phillies: -1.5 (+164) ML (-126)

Over: 8 (-110)

Under: 8 (-110)

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Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread

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Milwaukee has won four in a row. Today, the Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta. Peralta has struggled this season as he is 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA. He has not lasted past four innings and looks nothing like the ace he was in 2021. However, Peralta will attempt to turn things around in a showdown with the Phillies. He needs to regain command of his deceptive fastball and the dominant slider that propelled him often in 2021. Additionally, his teammates need to do more at the plate.

The Brewers are 24th in batting average and 22nd in on-base percentage. In addition to that, Milwaukee is 19th in runs. The pitching staff has carried the Brewers and often determined whether Milwaukee succeeded. The offense must get going. Their bats have struggled, and stars like Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe have not produced this season. Yelich is hitting .195 with only one home run, while Renfroe is batting .233 with one homer. The Brewers need two of their best hitters to make their mark and propel Milwaukee to victory. Additionally, the bullpen has to recover from the near-collapse on Wednesday. The key to success involves getting the ball to Hader with the lead.

The Brewers will cover the spread if Peralta finds his groove, the bats awaken, and the bullpen can successfully get the ball to Hader for a save opportunity.

Why the Phillies Could Cover The Spread

Philadelphia will go with Ranger Suarez. Suarez is 1-0 with a 5.87 ERS. However, he performed significantly better in his last start, allowing two earned runs on six hits over five innings. Now, he hopes to replicate the performance against an anemic Brewers offense still searching for answers. Suarez will excel if his teammates crush the ball again.

The Phillies went yard four times on Wednesday. Obviously, the game was at Coors Field, and that assisted in the elevation of the hits. However, Philadelphia is also fourth in the majors in home runs. Their ability to crush the ball gives them an edge, especially against a pitcher who allowed a home run in his last start. Ultimately, the Phillies need better pitching. They allowed 16 runs in the three-game series with the Rockies and are 28th in team ERA.

The Phillies will cover the spread if Suarez can give them at least six innings of work while limiting mistakes and not walking hitters. Additionally, Philadelphia covers if their bats remain hot and get to Peralta early in the game.

Final Brewers-Phillies Prediction & Pick

There is a low value in predicting the Brewers to cover the spread. This is mainly because the teams played four one-run games last season. However, the Phillies excelled against the Brewers, winning five of the seven games in 2021. Philadelphia is also favored to win because of Peralta's horrid start. Peralta should eventually recover and pitch better as the season progresses. However, it is too soon to trust him, and the best value is picking the Phillies to win outright.

Final Brewers-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-126)