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The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants will wrap up their four-game series on Wednesday night. In what should be a good series finale, it's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Cardinals-Giants prediction and pick.
It's been a surprisingly competitive series so far, as the Cardinals have taken two games to the Giants' one. St. Louis needs to keep winning to stay relevant in the NL Central, while San Francisco is holding on to a meager half-game lead in the NL West with the Los Angeles Dodgers hot on their heels.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday's game.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Giants Odds
St. Louis Cardinals ML (+158)
San Francisco Giants ML (-172)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-115)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-105)
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
No one expected St. Louis to give the Giants much of a challenge in this series, but they're on the brink of winning three out of four games. Their success has been partially due to a resurgent offense that has far outperformed expectations in the last couple of matchups. There's a good chance for this trend to continue, as the Cardinals will be facing opposing pitcher Alex Wood.
When looking at Wood's season-long stats, he looks like a pretty solid starter. His stats from his last seven starts tell a different story. He's posted a 6.29 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in that span. Both are terrible numbers, giving hope to a Cardinals offense that has been streaky at best.
St. Louis also has a couple of edges over him in this matchup. First off, the Cardinals are better at hitting lefties than they are righties. Their batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage all take a leap when facing a southpaw.
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The St. Louis hitters also seem to have Wood's number. Of the seven batters who have ever faced Wood, three hold batting averages of .375 or higher against the lefty.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
The Giants have been one of the most surprising teams in the MLB this year, largely due to their lineup. The San Francisco offense is currently ranked as the eleventh-best offense by batting average while also hitting the second most home runs in the league. That's a pretty good combination, especially against lower-tier starting pitchers like Johan Oviedo of the Cardinals.
St. Louis will send Oviedo to the mound for his eleventh start of the season on Wednesday night. The first ten were less than inspiring. Oviedo owns an ERA of 5.14 and a WHIP of 1.55 on the year. He's prone to giving up home runs, as he's allowed a homer in more than half of his starts. Oviedo also struggles with his control, something that will be exploited by a San Francisco team that ranks fifth in the league in walks drawn.
The Giants have even more factors going their way against Oviedo. San Francisco is much better at hitting righties than they are lefties, experiencing a statistical jump in almost all categories against right-handed pitching. They also hit better when playing at home, sporting a higher batting average, OBP, and OPS when playing in the Bay Area.
Final Cardinals-Giants Prediction & Pick
This is a game where both teams are sending struggling pitchers to the mound. Wood's stats look good upon first glance, but he's struggled mightily over his last seven starts. I also expect the Giants to demolish Oviedo early in the ball game. I'm taking the over here, as I think there's a chance the Giants break it on their own.
FINAL CARDINALS-GIANTS PREDICTION PICK: Over 8 1/2 runs (-115)
