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The Chicago Cubs take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Dodgers prediction and pick.
Mark Leiter Jr. gets the ball for the Cubs, while Tony Gonsolin takes the mound for the Dodgers.
Mark Leiter Jr. has a 4.85 ERA. He has pitched only 29 2/3 innings this season, so it's not as though he has built a substantial track record. Past performance should not be used as a measuring stick for evaluating him. Leiter's first appearance of 2022 was a start against the Rockies on April 16. He soon got moved to the bullpen, where he carried out short-relief and long-relief assignments. He made only one appearance in the month of May. Only recently was he bumped back into the starting rotation. Interestingly enough, his last outing was the result of an injury to another Chicago starter. Leiter came into a game against the Red Sox last Saturday due to an injury suffered by starter Alec Mills. Leiter, thrown into the fire after Mills threw just seven pitches, threw 5 1/3 innings of emergency relief, limiting the powerful Boston lineup to just one run on three hits. That was the longest outing of Leiter's season. In his previous 2022 appearances, he had not pitched longer than four innings. What does this mean for this game against the Dodgers? It's impossible to know.
Tony Gonsolin is a leading National League Cy Young Award contender. Sandy Alcantara probably leads the race, but Gonsolin is right behind him with strong credentials. Gonsolin's ERA of 1.54 is lower than Alcantara's. He does have a 10-0 record, too. The one thing which keeps Gonsolin behind Alcantara in a Cy Young comparison is that Alcantara goes eight innings in many of his starts. Gonsolin entered last Friday's start against the Padres having failed to complete seven innings in any of his previous 14 starts this year. He did something about that against San Diego, going 7 2/3 innings and allowing one run. Gonsolin has been a machine this year. He has allowed no more than one run in 10 of his 15 starts, no more than two runs in 14 of his starts, and no more than two earned runs in all 15 starts. If he can consistently go seven innings per start, to the extent that Alcantara's innings-pitched advantage diminishes, Gonsolin's overall pitching portfolio would improve, and his Cy Young odds would increase.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Dodgers Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (+108)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-130)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
The fact that Mark Leiter pitched so well against a good hitting team (the Red Sox) in a prolonged outing should give the Cubs plenty of reason to think he can do something similar here. The Cubs would be thrilled to get five innings and only two runs allowed from Leiter. Given how the Dodgers struggled with Colorado Rockies pitcher Jose Urena on Wednesday — Urena had not pitched in months — Los Angeles could certainly struggle with Leiter, giving the Cubs a chance to not only stay close, but win the game outright.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
Tony Gonsolin is, at worst, the second-best starting pitcher in the National League. Maybe he doesn't go eight innings in his starts, but he is money in the bank in terms of allowing no more than two runs every seven innings he pitches. He usually goes six innings and allows no more than one run. With his level of consistency, it's really hard to pick against the Dodgers anytime he goes to the mound.
Final Cubs-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
If you want to bet on Mark Leiter against Tony Gonsolin, that's your choice. It's not ours.
Final Cubs-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
