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The Chicago Cubs take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Giants prediction and pick.
Marcus Stroman takes the bump for the Cubs, while Alex Cobb goes to the mound for the Giants.
Marcus Stroman has a 4.38 ERA, but that does not tell the story of how well he is pitching right now. Stroman has had two separate injury-based interruptions to his 2022 season, one for two and a half weeks in early May, the other for five weeks from June 4 through July 8. Stroman's ERA was 5.32 after a terrible June 3 start. His injury indicated that his poor form was related to his lack of full health and strength. Since coming back to the Cubs' rotation on July 9, however, Stroman has been excellent. He has reduced his ERA by nearly one full run. His totals in his last three starts: 14 1/3 innings pitched, two runs, no homers allowed. He hasn't gone deep into games, but he is shutting down opposing hitters. If Stroman goes five innings and gives up one run in this game against the Giants (which would be representative of his last three starts), the Cubs have a great chance to win.
Alex Cobb has a 4.26 ERA. He, much like Stroman, has pitched a lot better after returning to the mound following an injury-based absence. Cobb was out from May 30-June 18. On May 29, his ERA was 5.73. So, you can see that since he returned to the rotation on June 19, he has reduced his ERA by nearly 1.5 runs. Cobb's combined totals from June 19-July 24 are as follows: 38 1/3 innings pitched, 12 earned runs, and only two homers allowed. That's an ERA of under three runs, an impressive response to a bumpy start to the 2022 season. Cobb did give up four runs in 5 2/3 innings in his most recent start, but that was against a loaded Dodger lineup. The Cubs aren't likely to offer nearly as much resistance.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Giants Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-182)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
Marcus Stroman, when he is dialed in, is a very formidable pitcher. Keep in mind that he had a 1.50 ERA for the month of May before his early-June injury. He had displayed good form at an earlier part of this season, not just in his most recent string of starts. Stroman has a live arm and can get great, late movement on his pitches. He is an experienced performer who is well-traveled in the big leagues and knows how to use a Plan B or C when Plan A isn't working.
Add to this the fact that the Giants have lost seven of their last eight. Their hitting has been woeful. They scratched out four runs on Thursday against the Cubs, but that's an unusually productive night for San Francisco. Chances are the Giants will score fewer than four runs here.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
After winning on Thursday, the Giants could breathe again. They snapped their seven-game losing streak and hit the reset button. After a win, this team should begin to play better. It certainly could not have played any worse than it did this past week against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants are bound to get better, and the Cubs do not have a good hitting team. That lines up well for San Francisco.
Final Cubs-Giants Prediction & Pick
The Cubs are pitching well, but they're not a good team. The Giants are at home, but they're not hitting well. This is a stay-away game. If you insist on a pick, take the Cubs plus the run and a half.
Final Cubs-Giants Prediction & Pick: Cubs +1.5
