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The Chicago Cubs take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Giants prediction and pick.
Drew Smyly makes the start for the Cubs, while Jakob Junis takes the bump for the Giants.
Drew Smyly has a 3.93 ERA. He has been a hard pitcher to figure out this year. He pitched to a 2.79 ERA in April, a very solid start to the season. His ERA rose to 4.08 on May 23. He made one more start in late May, then got hurt and did not pitch in June. He returned to the Cubs' rotation on July 10 and pitched terribly against the Dodgers. He then pitched a decent-but-not-great game against the Mets right before the All-Star break. No one was expecting him to dominate the Phillies on July 24 in Philadelphia, but that's what he did, giving up only one earned run in six strong innings. Will Smyly build off that start against the Phils, or will he regress? It's not an easy question to answer.
Jakob Junis has a 2.98 ERA, but that really doesn't mean much of anything because of Junis' injury problems. He has pitched just 6 1/3 innings since June 10, so there's really no basis for evaluating him based on past performance. Some pitchers are great after coming back from an injury, while some pitchers need some time. If one was to lean in a given direction, Junis probably needs more time, but that's a guessing game, pure speculation. We need to see him in a few more starts before being able to determine where he stands in terms of fitness, stamina, quality, precision, and all the other measurements of a pitcher after a long injury layoff. Six and one-third innings just isn't enough to go on. Let's be honest.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Giants Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-178)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
The Cubs have been getting great pitching since the All-Star break. They have allowed just 17 runs in seven games after the break. They have not allowed more than four runs in any of those games. They have allowed more than three runs in only one game, and more than two runs only twice. Everyone on the staff, both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen, is contributing to the effort. Meanwhile, the Giants have been hitting terribly, losing eight of their last nine games. Last year, someone always got the big hit in a big spot for San Francisco, and this year, that kind of moment just isn't happening. The Cubs might have the worse record between these teams, but there's no question they're playing better baseball than the Giants right now.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
After losing on Friday, the Giants know this is an extremely important ballgame in a series where they need to win three out of four games. That means they have to win Saturday and Sunday. The Giants still have to play the Padres and Dodgers later in the season. If they are to have any real chance of grabbing a National League wild card berth, they simply have to beat the teams below them in the standings.
Urgency gives the Giants an edge in this game. What also gives them an edge is that Drew Smyly is not a particularly reliable pitcher. Smyly has to prove he can string together good starts.
Final Cubs-Giants Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game, given how hard it is to predict what either pitcher will do. If you insist on a pick, go with the under, since Cub games have almost always been unders since the All-Star break.
Final Cubs-Giants Prediction & Pick: Under 8
