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The Chicago Cubs will travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday to start a three-game series. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Cubs-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Cubs enter this game with a 35-57 record, good for fourth in the NL Central. Likewise, they are 1-9 over their last 10 games. The Cubs are 5-11 in July. Moreover, they are 17-25 on the road. The Phillies are 49-43, good for third in the NL East. They are 6-4 over 10 games. Also, they are 9-6 in July. The Phillies are 24-21 in games played at Citizens Bank Park. It will be the first meeting of the season for the Cubs and Phillies. Consequently, the Phillies won the season series 5-2 in 2021. The Phillies are 5-1 in the last six home games against the Cubs.
The Cubs will go with Justin Steele on the mound. Steele is 3-6 with a 4.16 ERA. Also, he is returning from Paternity Leave, and ready to resume throwing. Steele went 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA in five starts over June before taking leave. Likewise, he tossed five innings in his last start, allowing one earned run on six hits on June 29.
Kyle Gibson will be on the mound for the Cardinals. Gibson is 5-3 with a 4.35 ERA. Also, he is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA over three starts in July. Gibson tossed six innings in his last start, allowing one earned run on four hits. Additionally, he is 4-1 with a 4.01 ERA over nine starts at Citizens Bank Park. Gibson is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA over two starts against the Cubs in his career.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Phillies odds:
MLB odds: Cubs-Phillies Odds
Cubs: +1.5 (-166)
Phillies: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 9 (-122)
Under: 9 (+100)
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Why The Cubs Cover the Spread
The Cubs do not have many weapons offensively, but they do have Patrick Wisdom and Ian Happ. The rookie Wisdom is batting .220 with 17 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 48 runs. Additionally, he is batting .238 with six home runs, 19 RBIs, and 26 runs away from Wrigley Field. Wisdom is batting .167 with one home run, three RBIs, and seven runs in July, so he must pick the pace up.
Happ is batting 2.74 with nine home runs, 42 RBIs, and 41 runs. Moreover, he is batting .222 with five home runs, 22 RBIs, and 18 runs over 42 games on the road. His July has not been great, as he is batting .200 with three RBIs and four runs over seven games. Additionally, Happ has struggled against the Phillies in his career, batting .133 with one home run, six RBIs, and seven runs over 19 games. It is only slightly better at Citizens Bank Park, where he is batting .143 with one home run, five RBIs, and four runs.
The Cubs will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of Steele. He must go the distance, tossing at least six to seven innings, giving the Cubs the best chance to win. The bullpen must do their job, protecting any leads they come across. Wisdom and Happ must produce at the plate.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have continued to hum along without Bryce Harper as Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins carry the load. Schwarber is batting .208 with 29 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 62 runs. Additionally, he is batting .167 with six home runs, eight RBIs, and eight runs in 15 games in July. Schwarber has usually been ‘all or nothing' at the plate all season, and nothing seems to have changed as the season progresses. He is batting .225 with 13 home runs, 24 RBIs, and 29 runs over 44 games at Citizens Bank Park. Also, Schwarber is batting .154 (2 for 13) with two home runs, three RBIs, and two runs. Both hits were home runs, showcasing his streakiness, even against his former team.
Hoskins is batting .244 with 19 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 49 runs. Additionally, he is batting .208 with four home runs, five RBIs, and eight runs over 15 games in July. Hoskins is batting .274 with 11 home runs, 25 RBIs, and 27 runs in 44 games at Citizens Bank Park. Likewise, he is batting .228 with five home runs, 15 RBIs, and 10 runs in his career against the Cubs.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Gibson can deliver a fine performance. Likewise, Schwarber must excel against the team that drafted him, and Hoskins must pull his weight. The Phillies still have at least another few weeks without Harper, so their two biggest bats must produce.
Final Cubs-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Phillies are the better team, and one with playoff aspirations. Thus, it is difficult to see the Cubs threatening them. Steele is the only factor that could change the outcome. Otherwise, the Phillies will cover the odds.
Final Cubs-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies: -1.5 (+138)
