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The Arizona Diamondbacks continued their losing ways against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, falling to a six-run seventh inning from the Cardinals. Arizona will look to rebound Tuesday, while the Cardinals will try to extend the Diamondbacks' road losing streak. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Before we make the pick, let's see the lines for Tuesday's game.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Cardinals Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+140)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-152)
Over 9 runs (-105)
Under 9 runs (-115)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Facing a terrible pitcher always helps a struggling offense, so the Diamondbacks are lucky that Carlos Martinez is starting for the Cardinals.
Martinez has had a nightmare of a season to this point. His stats for the whole year are horrible, but his last seven starts have been even worse. In those seven appearances, he owns an ERA bordering 10 and a WHIP of 1.80. Martinez has given up 35 runs in his last 32 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks have a great chance of stealing a win away from a pitcher who has been one of the MLB's worst.
The St. Louis bullpen is certainly a strength, but they were forced to deploy six relievers last game. If Martinez needs to be pulled early (which is certainly possible) a depleted Cardinals bullpen may not be able to pull off another good performance.
While the Cardinals are entrusting Martinez with the start, Arizona has the privilege of sending one of their better starters to the hill. Caleb Smith was recently moved into the starting rotation, and he has performed pretty well in his new role. Over those starts, he owns a 2.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.14. Smith is capable of going six innings, hopefully covering for some of the poor Arizona relievers.
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Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
If there is any team that Carlos Martinez can pitch successfully against, it is the Diamondbacks. He has already faced them once this season, going six innings and allowing three runs.
The Arizona offense has struggled mightily all season long, and everyone knows about their play on the road. All of the Diamondbacks' major batting stats fall off a cliff when they play away from home. To make matters even better for the Cardinals, Arizona is far worse against right-handed pitching. They sport a lower batting average, OBP, and OPS against righties than they do against lefties.
The St. Louis lineup also has an advantage against Caleb Smith. Luckily for the Cardinals, Smith is left-handed. St. Louis has been significantly better against lefties this season, with major leaps across the board in pretty much every batting statistic.
Once Smith is pulled, things get even better for the Cardinals. The Arizona bullpen has been one of the league's worst for the entire season. St. Louis got to the bullpen for seven runs on Monday, something that could certainly be repeated.
Final Diamondbacks-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
Both of these squads have struggled lately and much of the year, but it's nearly impossible to pick the Diamondbacks with confidence. The Cardinals have the advantage in pretty much every statistical category, even with Martinez pitching. I expect this to be a close game to start, but St. Louis should be able to repeat and pull away in the later innings.
FINAL PICK: St. Louis Cardinals ML (-152)
