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The Arizona Diamondbacks will finish up a three-game set against the rival San Diego Padres on Sunday in an afternoon rubber match. The two squads have traded off blowout wins, despite the fact that one team fighting for the NL West title while the other is stuck in the basement of the division. A series-deciding game often makes for very interesting baseball, so it's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Padres prediction and pick.
First, let's look at the lines heading into today's game.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Padres Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks +1 1/2 (+100)
San Diego Padres -1 1/2 (-120)
Over 7 1/2 runs (+103)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-123)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
The Diamondbacks have been one of the worst teams in the MLB to this point, but there's some reason for hope.
Their record 23-game losing streak was snapped last night against the Padres, and their pitching will give them a chance to pull off another upset. Starter Zac Gallen is projected to make his eighth start of the year, a fact that should encourage Arizona fans.
Despite only starting seven games so far, Gallen is likely the Diamondbacks' best pitcher. He's earned a 3.67 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over his starts, both respectable stats. He hasn't faced the Padres this year, but he will give Arizona the best shot at covering.
Yu Darvish will be starting for San Diego, which isn't all that bad for the Diamondbacks. Of the nine projected starters in Arizona's lineup today, eight of them hold a batting average of .250 or above against Darvish. Four of them bat over .400 against the Padres' pitcher. As far as matchups go, this is a decent one for Arizona. The San Diego bullpen has also been shaky, so this should be a game where the Diamondbacks' offense performs well.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego likely came into this series expecting to sweep their opponent, but now they're stuck facing off against Arizona in a series rubber match.
Fortunately for the Padres, the aforementioned Yu Darvish has been fantastic for much of the 2021 season. He owns a 2.98 ERA to pair with a .92 WHIP in his last seven games, stats he will likely be able to improve upon against the Diamondbacks.
While the Arizona hitters seem to have Darvish's number, they haven't faced him this year. This is the best he's looked since his days as a Texas Ranger, and I expect that trend to continue. Helping him will be the fact that Arizona is a much worse offense on the road. They average fewer runs on the road than they do at home, as well as fewer hits. Darvish should be able to work deep into this game as he's done all year, covering for a San Diego bullpen that is prone to mistakes.
It's easy to ramble on about the fantastic San Diego starting pitching, but it's time to turn our attention to the lineup. Led by superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., this unit is one of the most potent in the league. As a team, they hit righties much better than lefties, notching a higher batting average, OBP, and OPS against right-handers.
Gallen has been solid this year, but this lineup is better than any he's faced all year. Gallen has worked past the sixth inning only once this year, meaning that the Arizona bullpen will be making an appearance in this one. That has almost led to disaster for the Diamondbacks, and I don't expect any difference in this one.
Final Diamondbacks-Padres Prediction & Pick
Despite the upset win Saturday night, it's almost always safe to pick against the Diamondbacks. San Diego has the pitching advantage, the lineup advantage, and the home-field advantage. I expect the Padres to put their foot down in this rubber match and show that they're a much stronger team than Arizona.
FINAL PICK: San Diego Padres -1 1/2 (-120)
