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The Arizona Diamondbacks will continue their three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Diamondbacks-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Phillies defeated the Diamondbacks 7-5 on Friday in the opener of this three-game series. The Phillies ramped things up in the second inning as Kyle Schwarber approached the plate with the Phillies already leading 2-0. Next, Schwarber smacked a three-run bomb to right field for his 16th home run of the year. It gave the Phillies a 5-0 lead. A few batters later, Didi Gregorius clipped an RBI double to make it 6-0 Phillies.
Daulton Varsho came to the plate for Arizona in the sixth inning and slammed a solo shot to right to cut the deficit to 6-1. Next, Varsho struck again in the seventh with an RBI double to make it 6-3. Josh Rojas followed with an RBI double to shallow left to make it 6-5. Ultimately, Rhys Hoskins produced a solo shot to left in the bottom half to give the Phillies the only insurance run they needed.
Kyle Gibson tossed six innings for the Phillies, allowing three earned runs on four hits and four strikeouts. Brad Hand struggled in relief, allowing two earned runs on two hits. However, the rest of the bullpen fared better, tossing 2 2/3 innings of shutout baseball.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Diamondback-Phillies odds:
MLB odds: Diamondbacks-Phillies Odds
Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-102)
Phillies: -1.5 (-118)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
The Diamondbacks fell short in their comeback attempt last night. Now, they get to try again. Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for Arizona. Bumgarner is 2-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 2022. However, he has struggled recently, not having won a game since May 10. Bumgarner has produced inconsistent results to help the situation. His ERA has risen in every start since May 10 and he has allowed four or more earned runs in three of the last four starts. Bumgarner must deliver today because his offense is not great.
The Diamondbacks rank 29th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, 24th in runs scored, and 20th in slugging percentage. Alternatively, they are 10th in home runs. Christian Walker has delivered that stat for them, smashing 15 home runs. Varsho now has nine home runs after last night's contest.
Bumgarner must go deep because the bullpen is not strong. The Diamondbacks rank 26th in bullpen team ERA. Likewise, they allowed a run last night against the Phillies. It was the only run the relievers allowed in 7 1/3 innings of work. The Diamondbacks need Bumgarner to go deep into the game to relieve pressure off as tired bullpen.
The Diamondbacks will cover the spread if Bumgarner delivers a good outing and the hitters strike early. Additionally, the Diamondbacks need their bullpen to hold steady against a solid Phillies lineup.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies will roll with Zack Wheeler, who is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA. Wheeler tossed six innings in his previous start, allowing two earned runs on six hits with nine strikeouts. He has tossed at least six innings in four straight starts. Also, Wheeler has accomplished this mark in six of the last seven starts. He lowered his ERA from 4.26 a month ago to 3.14. Likewise, he has some backup in a high-powered offense.
The Phillies rank seventh in the majors in batting average, fourth in runs scored, second in home runs, and first in slugging percentage. Schwarber has hit 16 home runs this year. Likewise, Bryce Harper has produced 15 home runs and 45 RBIs. Hoskins has added 11 home runs and 29 RBIs. This Phillies' lineup can hit in different styles of the game. They built an enormous lead last night on a six-run inning.
The Phillies have an inconsistent bullpen, middling around at 16th in team ERA. Hand was the only reliever to struggle last night but the rest of the bullpen held their ground.
The Phillies cover the spread if Wheeler goes the distance, giving them another quality start. Additionally, the lineup must stay hot. The Phillies only left four on base yesterday, so producing with runners in scoring position must continue.
Final Diamondbacks-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Diamondbacks and Phillies will both unleash their best pitchers. Despite his recent struggles, Bumgarner can still be dangerous. Likewise, Wheeler is a top-of-the-rotation guy. Expect this game to have a lower run total than last night's contest. It's a small risk, but this game feels like a low-scoring affair. Take the under to cover.
Final Diamondbacks-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Under: 8.5 (-102)
