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The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres will meet in the rubber match of this three-game series at Petco Park on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB Odds series with a Dodgers-Padres prediction and pick.
The Padres defeated the Dodgers 3-2 in a 10-inning walk-off win. The Padres led 1-0 heading into the third inning when Jake Cronenworth strode up to the plate. Cronenworth smashed a low fastball on a 1-2 count to right field for his first home run of the season. This gave the Padres a 2-0 lead. Meanwhile, the Dodgers struggled to get anyone home against Yu Darvish. Los Angeles had its best chance in the second inning when they had Mookie Betts at the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. However, Betts struck out and Darvish retired the last 13 batters he faced.
The Dodgers tied it up in the eighth inning on a Trea Turner RBI double that scored Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux. Neither team put up any more runs over the final two innings. After Los Angeles failed to score in the 10th, San Diego had its shot. Austin Nola came through with a sacrifice fly to left that drove C.J. Abrams home for the winning run.
Darvish pitched well for the Padres, going six innings and allowing one hit while walking three. Tyler Anderson tossed 4 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs on four hits. The win makes the Padres 10-6 on the season and one game behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Dodgers-Padres MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Padres Odds
Dodgers: -1.5 (+125)
Padres: +1.5 (-150)
Over: 7 (+104)
Under: 7 (-128)
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Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
Los Angeles has had an up-and-down series against San Diego. In the opener, the Dodgers controlled every aspect of the game and blew to a 6-1 win. Last night, Los Angeles mustered only two runs. Conversely, the pitching has been excellent, and that should continue today with Clayton Kershaw taking the mound.
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Kershaw went 1-2 in 2021 against the Padres. However, he has dominated the Padres at Petco Park throughout his career. He is 10-4 with a 1.88 ERA in games pitched in the San Diego ballpark. Kershaw is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2022, and that includes a perfect seven innings in the opener. Thus, he looks to continue the momentum as he faces the Padres to decide who wins the final game of the series.
Despite struggling last night, the Dodgers' hitters have produced well in 2022. Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Justin Turner lead a well-stocked lineup looking to recover from last night. The Dodgers had a chance to capitalize on Darvish early and could not. Los Angeles left six runners on base and will attempt to rectify that today. Also, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Bellinger, and Turner combined for a measly 1 for 20 at the plate. Those five must improve on that performance against the Padres. The bullpen must contain the Padres late in the game and prevent another extra-innings clash.
The Dodgers will cover the spread if Kershaw continues his dominance over the Padres. Additionally, Los Angeles needs its all-star hitters to produce more than one hit to have a chance. Lastly, the bullpen must hold its own and keep the Padres grounded.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego has not scored much in this series as they have put up three runs. Now, they face Kershaw, who has terrorized them in the past. The Padres must find a way to rattle Kershaw early. Also, their starting pitcher needs to do his part to keep the Padres in the game. Sean Manaea will take the hill for the Padres. He is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA over three starts in 2022. However, he has never beaten the Dodgers throughout his career and has a 5.27 ERA over three career starts against the boys in blue.
The offense must give him run support to ensure a chance to win. This starts with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer. The pair combined to go 0 for 6 last night. Also, the Padres left six runners on base and could not capitalize on prime opportunities to secure the win for Darvish. The bullpen also blew a lead in the eighth inning, which forced the Padres to win it in the extra frame. Now, the Padres must figure out a way to get to Kershaw while containing a dangerous Dodgers lineup.
The Padres will cover the spread if Manaea can counter Kershaw and deliver a quality start. Additionally, San Diego needs its all-star hitters to come through, and the Padres need to drive the runners home. Lastly, the bullpen must pitch more efficiently against the Dodgers. It has not been a good series for the relievers as they have surrendered six runs in this series.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick
Who will win the rubber match? The Dodgers are looking like the favorites and have one of their best arms on the mound looking to secure the series. The offense bounces back, Kershaw pitches well, and the Dodgers cover the spread.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Dodgers: -1.5 (+125)
