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The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks will finish their four-game series Sunday afternoon. The Giants have won the last two games and will play for the series victory. The Diamondbacks are struggling (as usual) in every part of the game, but they have a chance to play spoiler to an NL West rival. I expect this game to be closer than most people expect, so it's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Before we make the pick, let's see how the bookmakers have set the lines for this game.
MLB Odds: Giants-Diamondbacks Odds
San Francisco Giants (-175)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+161)
Over 9 runs (-105)
Under 9 runs (-115)
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
The Giants have been one of the more surprising teams in MLB. No one expected them to compete in the ultra-competitive NL West, much less lead it. But here they are, clinging to a half-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Part of the reason they've been so successful has been a great pitching rotation, which will be on full display when Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound.
DeSclafani has been another huge surprise this season, pitching to the tune of a 2.91 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Those are much better numbers than anyone expected from him, and there's even more reason for optimism. The last time DeSclafani faced the Diamondbacks, he went five innings, allowing only one run and striking out five. The D-backs don't exactly sport an intimidating lineup, so I expect DeSclafani to be able to work deep into this game while keeping the Arizona offense quiet.
Diamondbacks starter Caleb Smith has been solid all year, but he has run into some trouble when facing the Giants, or more specifically certain members of the Giants' lineup. Of the nine projected starters in the lineup, only four have ever faced Smith. Every single one of those batters is hitting over .270 in multiple at-bats against Smith.
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
At first glance, it may be difficult to have any faith in Arizona to win this game, but there's some reason to believe that an upset is in the cards.
The first is Smith. He has been solid all year, but his season-long statistics don't tell the whole story. In his last seven games, he has earned an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.07, drastic improvements on his season-long numbers. Smith has pitched extremely well recently, and there's no reason to believe that that will change.
The Giants are also worse against left-handed pitching, scoring worse statistics across the board against lefties than they do against righties. San Francisco also struggles offensively on the road, with the batting average dropping from .252 to .236 when playing away from the Bay. If anything, there's a good chance that Smith continues his hot streak and produces another quality outing.
It's hugely important to note that this game is taking place in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been historically terrible on the road, setting a new record by losing 24 straight road games. As one would expect, all their offensive statistics take a huge leap when they play at Chase Field, giving them a better chance of hanging around in this game.
Final Giants-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
As I said earlier, this game is going to be much closer than most people think. Because of that, I'll take my chances on another Arizona upset. Caleb Smith has been pitching well lately, which will always give the D-backs a shot to win. The odds also make it worth it to take the home team, so I'll stick with the Diamondbacks as heavy the underdog.
FINAL PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+161)
