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The Cleveland Guardians (12-13) visit the Boston Red Sox (13-13) on Friday night! First pitch commences at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Red Sox prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Guardians-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Red Sox Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+122)
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-146)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How To Watch Guardians vs. Red Sox
TV: Bally Sports, NESN
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Last 10 & Standing: 3-7 (Second in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 9-16 (36%)
Over Record: 10-14-1 (42%)
Cleveland desperately needs to kick off this three-game series with a win tonight. The Guardians faced Detroit, Miami, and Colorado in their three previous series and dropped 2/3 to each of them. For a team with postseason aspirations, dropping early series to non-playoff teams can prove disastrous once September rolls around. Still, it's far too early to push the panic button considering their strong 2022. The Guardians' pitching has been stellar but their biggest issue lies on the offensive end. Cleveland ranks 25th in runs per game and 27 in total bases per game. That being said, Boston could be just the remedy for their cold stretch as they allowed the fourth-most runs in the AL coming into tonight.
Shane Bieber (1-1) makes his sixth start of the season for Cleveland. Bieber had a solid start to the season thus far, holding a 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Bieber has yet to allow more than three runs in a game – however, he did allow between two and three runs in each of his last four starts. Still, he hasn't looked nearly as sharp as his stellar 2022 season during which he finished with a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Perhaps most concerning are his strikeout numbers. With a career K/9 of 10.5, Bieber's success largely centers around his ability to generate whiffs. That's yet to show itself in 2023 as his 6.5 K/9 would mark a career low for the 27-year-old. While the strikeout numbers likely won't go up tonight, Bieber pitched well against Boston last year – picking up a loss despite allowing just three runs in seven innings.
If the Guardians want to cover a two-run spread, they're going to need something from their offense. That starts with third baseman Jose Ramirez. The 30-year-old star has gotten off to a slow start in 2023 – batting .271 with just three home runs. Although his average mirrors last season's .280 average, the power numbers haven't been there. His isolated power is down to levels not seen since 2016 despite a strong walk rate. Jose struggled at Fenway last season, compiling just four hits in 16 at-bats. Still, his strong track record gives hope for a rebound performance tonight.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Last 10 & Standing: 5-5 (Fifth in the AL East)
Run Line Record: 14-12 (54%)
Over Record: 18-8 (69%)
Boston may sit in last place in their division, but by no means are they a bottom-tier team. The Red Sox have the unfortunate honor of playing in a loaded AL-East as their .500 record won't sniff the top of the division. Still, with series wins in 5/8 series thus far the Red Sox proved more than capable of winning series against good teams. Boston's biggest strength lies in their offense. The Red Sox rank fourth in runs per game and fourth in home runs per game. Although Cleveland boasts a strong pitching staff, Boston took five of the seven games between them last season.
Righty Nick Pivetta (1-1) makes his fifth start of the season for the Red Sox tonight. Pivetta enjoyed his most fruitful season as a pro last season. He acted as a workhorse for Boston – throwing 179.2 innings while compiling a 10-12 record, a 4.56 ERA, and 8.8 K/9. He looks to be following a similar trajectory this season with his ERA and WHIP nearly mirroring last season. However, the big chance for Pivetta has been his strikeout numbers. The 30-year-old struck out 6+ batters in 11/33 starts (33%) last season. This year he already did that in three of his first four starts (75%). Big strikeout numbers aren't unfamiliar to Pivetta as he has three prior seasons with a K/9 above 10. Although the Guardians strike out at the second-lowest rate in the MLB, Pivetta shut Cleveland down last season – allowing just three runs over 12.2 innings.
Final Guardians-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Although Boston owned Cleveland last season, the pitching duel here is too one-sided to ignore. Despite some early rust from Bieber, I like him to come out firing tonight and shut down Boston's potent lineup.
Final Guardians-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+122)
