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The Cleveland Guardians take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Guardians Twins prediction and pick.
Aaron Civale gets the start for the Guardians, while Sonny Gray takes the hill for the Twins.
Aaron Civale is consistent, but not in a particularly good way. The Cleveland starter has a 9.45 ERA. He has allowed at least four runs in all five starts this season. He does not walk a lot of hitters, averaging just over one walk per game, but he doesn't miss bats enough with his pitches. In three of five outings this season, Civale has given up more hits than the number of strikeouts he has collected. That's very alarming. He doesn't have a lot of bite on his pitches. They are very hittable, and hitters have been taking advantage. It is true, however, that Civale struck out eight in his last appearance, so maybe he is beginning to make adjustments. Overall, he has not been an imposing pitcher who inspires fear in opposing hitters. This is important to note when thinking about a Guardians Twins prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Sonny Gray has a 3.48 ERA, but that doesn't mean very much. Gray has made only three appearances this season due to injury, logging fewer than 11 innings pitched. It's hard to glean too much from those three outings. Gray got injured on April 16. He returned to the Twins' rotation on May 7 and pitched four scoreless innings, walking two and striking out seven. One shouldn't assign too much meaning to that one appearance, but it did at least show that if Gray was previously hurt, he seems healthier now. That certainly matters for anyone thinking about a Guardians Twins pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Twins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-142)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+118)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
The Guardians have shown their resilience in the past week and a half, taking three of four from the Blue Jays and then coming from six runs down in the top of the ninth to beat the White Sox in extra innings on Monday. Josh Naylor had eight RBI in the eighth inning or later of that White Sox win, making him the first MLB player in history to achieve such a feat. This past Sunday, the Guardians trailed the Jays 2-0 in the top of the first and Toronto had the bases loaded with one out. Cleveland pitchers gave up only one more run and produced a victory. This team keeps bouncing back all the time, and it has pleasantly surprised in the American League Central.
Also note that the Twins are playing without an injured Carlos Correa. He is on the 10-day injured list, and it's clear the Twins miss his bat. Minnesota just got swept by the Houston Astros at home. The bats really suffered without Correa in the order. Minnesota looks very frail at the moment, and Cleveland can rightly view this series as a real opportunity to move up in the A.L. Central standings.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
After getting hammered by the Astros, the Twins — still in first place in the very weak A.L. Central — should welcome playing the Guardians, a team they will be expected to defeat. After seeing the Astros' quality pitching depth, moving to the Guardians' rotation should be a welcome change of pace in more ways than one.
In particular, facing Aaron Civale, who has been roughed up in every start he has made this season, should give Minnesota's slumping bats the boost they urgently need. As long as Sonny Gray doesn't allow a big inning, the Twins should lead entering the fifth by two or three runs. Their bullpen can then do the rest.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick
Aaron Civale simply hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt. You can distrust Sonny Gray coming off an injury, but he's not going to be worse than Civale, most likely. Minnesota should win.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5
