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The Cleveland Guardians will face off with the New York Yankees for the first of a three-game series in the Bronx. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Yankees prediction and pick.
The Guardians defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-3 on Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field. The game was scoreless, heading into the bottom of the third inning when Franmil Reyes came up to bat. Then, Reyes crushed a 1-1 pitch from Dylan Cease to deep-center field for a two-run home run. It was his third home run in 2022, and the score was 2-0 Guardians.
Zach Plesac was effective, tossing 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run and striking out three. Finally, Emmanuel Chase closed the game with a perfect ninth inning to secure the win. The Guardians are 7-5 and in first place in the AL Central.
The New York Yankees failed to score a run on Thursday as they lost 3-0 to the Detroit Tigers. Michael Pineda tossed five shutout innings, and the Detroit bullpen continued with the clean sheet over the last four innings. Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery was nearly as effective. He threw six innings and gave up one earned run. Unfortunately, the Yankees could not give him any run support.
Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo combined to go 3 for 10 from the plate. However, neither could drive the other in. The best chances to score came in the fifth, sixth, and eighth innings. Also, the Yanks had runners on the corners with no outs in the eighth. Ultimately, New York failed to capitalize on its opportunities. The Yankees are 7-6 and in a second-place tie in the AL East.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Yankees odds:
MLB Odds: Guardians-Yankees Odds
Guardians: +1.5 (-114)
Yankees: -1.5 (-105)
Over: 9 (-102)
Under: 9 (-120)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
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Cleveland took the three-game series in New York in 2021. Both games were blowout wins. Today, the Guardians will likely go with Eli Morgan. Morgan is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA this season. This is his second appearance at Yankee Stadium as he threw six innings, allowing one earned run and six hits in an 11-1 win over the Yankees on September 19, 2021. Now, he hopes to duplicate the effort and lead the Guardians to victory.
The Guardians hope Reyes keeps crushing the ball. After a slow start to the season, Reyes seems to be heating up, as he went 3 for 7 in the series against the White Sox. Additionally, Jose Ramirez has given Cleveland some pop early in the season. He is batting .426 with four home runs and 20 RBIs in 2022. In addition to offense, the Guardians need to limit mistakes. The defense made two critical errors yesterday on the same play in the seventh inning. Those mistakes could have cost them the game. In either case, the Guardians clamped down at the right time and held on.
The bullpen was a monumental reason for this. Cleveland relievers did not allow further damage to occur and clung onto a win over Chicago. The Guardians will cover the spread if Morgan is efficient. Also, Cleveland covers if Reyes and Ramirez crush the baseball and if the defense makes more intelligent plays.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
New York will go with Jameson Taillon on the hill today. Taillon is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 2022. He has yet to last longer than five innings and has given up a home run in each start. Also, Taillon struggled against the Guardians last season, giving up four earned runs on five hits, including a home run, in an April 25 loss. He went 0-2 in both starts against the Guardians last season. However, Taillon has the mechanics and the ability to get the job done.
But the Yankees need to score for him. New York left seven runners on base on Thursday. Additionally, the Yankees are 20th in batting average and 25th in runs. New York is 15th in home runs despite carrying four legitimate power threats. Judge, Stanton, Rizzo, and Gallo can all slug the baseball. However, only Rizzo has hit four home runs in 2022. Judge, Stanton, and Gallo have combined for three this season. The ‘Bronx Bombers' need to earn their nickname. Additionally, the Yankees bullpen must recover from yesterday's game, where it allowed the Tigers the insurance runs they needed to secure the win.
The Yankees will cover the spread if they can drive in their runners in scoring position. This starts with the home-run threats on the team and extends to the other parts of the lineup. Additionally, New York needs Taillon to last at least five innings to give its pitching staff a chance. The Yanks will cover if the bullpen recoups and performs to its expectations.
Final Guardians-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The Guardians will go with a young pitcher and even have another lined up for the weekend. Cleveland has done an amazing job developing their starting pitchers, and pitching at Yankee Stadium is the ultimate test. Thus, the Guardians will find a way to get the job done, containing the Yankees enough to cover the spread.
Final Guardians-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-110)
