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The Seattle Mariners head down to South Florida to begin a three-game series with the Miami Marlins on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mariners-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Mariners lost 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Rays to lose the series. Seattle struck first when Eugenio Suarez clobbered an RBI triple to right to make it 1-0 Mariners in the first inning. Then, the Rays answered back in the second when Brett Phillips delivered an RBI single that scored Harold Ramirez. The game was tied at 1-1, heading into the bottom of the seventh. Ultimately, Phillips reached on an infield single that drove in Ramirez for the go-ahead run and the eventual game-winner. Chris Flexen pitched 6 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs on six hits and took the loss. Seattle is 11-8 and second in the AL West.
The Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 3-2 to complete a three-game sweep in D.C. Things started roughly when Josh Bell plucked an RBI double to right to score Cesar Hernandez to put the Nats up 1-0 early in the game. Later, the Marlins answered back when Jon Berti cracked an RBI double to left-center to tie it at 1-1. The game remained tied until the seventh when Jesus Sanchez responded with an RBI single. Next, Miguel Rojas scored on a wild pitch to give the Marlins the insurance run to secure the game. Trevor Rogers tossed six innings giving up one earned run on two hits. Finally, Cole Sulser threw four outs for the save. The Marlins are 10-8 and in second place in the NL East.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Marlins odds:
MLB Odds: Mariners-Marlins Odds
Mariners: -1.5 (+138)
Marlins: +1.5 (-166)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
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Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle will turn to Matt Brash on the mound today. Brash is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA in his rookie season. He allowed three earned runs on five hits over 4 1/3 innings of work in his last start. Now, Brash will look to rebound and give a better effort. He has had a significant issue with walking hitters, as he allowed four free base runners in his last start and six in the game before. Moreover, he has given up home runs, allowing two in his first three career starts. Brash must count down on the walks and the long balls allowed.
The Mariners have some offensive weapons in Suarez and Adam Frazier. Ultimately, the goal is for these two to deliver and keep delivering for a squad that ranks eighth in the league in runs. Additionally, Seattle is seventh in home runs and ninth in slugging percentage. Ty France has been a big contributor to this effort, as he leads the Mariners with five home runs. Also, Mitch Haniger is a constant power threat as he has blasted three homers this season. Seattle relievers have struggled this season as the bullpen ranks 23rd in team ERA. However, they did not allow a run yesterday.
The Mariners will cover the spread if Brash can give them a quality start while limiting walks and not allowing the big hit. In addition to Brash, Seattle's offense must continue to hum and put their starting pitcher in a good position to win. Then, the bullpen can come in and not have to tighten its grip in a close game.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Miami will look for Elieser Hernandez to pick up his game. Hernandez is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in 2022. He gave up five earned runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings of work in his last start. Consequently. Hernandez gave up three home runs. He has struggled with durability as he has lasted six innings in one of his three starts. Also, Hernandez has given up six home runs over three starts. He needs to recover from that to give the Marlins a chance to win.
The Marlins need Jesus Aguilar and Jorge Soler to pound the ball. Yesterday, the pair combined to go 0 for 7. Miami needs those two to anchor its offense. Currently, the Marlins rank 22nd in home runs and 21st in runs scored. Jazz Chisholm Jr. leads Miami with four home runs with 15 RBIs and is batting .308. Ultimately, he has done most of his damage from the leadoff spot. The Miami bullpen did well yesterday and will look to improve on its 20th rank in the league in bullpen ERA.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Hernandez can give them a quality start while not letting the Mariners take him deep. Furthermore, the Marlins need their sluggers Aguilar, Soler, and Chisholm Jr. to lead the way and help Hernandez early to give him some comfort. It will ultimately lead to a better game by the bullpen.
Final Mariners-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The starting pitchers are not aces by a long shot. In the past, games between pitchers of this level have usually gone the opposite way. However, the Mariners hitters are too good to struggle for the second day in a row. The Marlins could take advantage also. Expect this game to go over the seven-run mark and the over to prevail.
Final Mariners-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (-112)
