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The New York Mets and San Diego Padres are tied at 1-1 as the series finale is here. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Padres prediction and pick.
After a dominant win in Game 1, the Mets ended the second game with just two hits. The Padres shut out the Mets 7-0 after seven scoreless innings from starter Yu Darvish. 1B Pete Alonso left the game in the second inning after being hit with a pitch. That was certainly an odd situation, as Alonso clearly swung the bat and followed through, despite being plunked in the hand. As a result, Alsonso was awarded first base but JD Davis pinch ran and Alonso left the game. Starling Marte also left the game after a slide that resulted in a lower-body injury. There is no update on their status.
Here are the Mets-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Padres Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-192)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets need a bounce-back performance to win the series. Starter Chris Bassitt will try and get the job done against his former teammate, who will also be on the bump for the Padres. Bassitt, the former Oakland A, is (4-3) with a 3.74 ERA in 65 innings pitched. He pitched decently against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last stint but earned the loss as the Mets only scored one run. If Bassitt can pitch at least six innings for the Mets tonight, that will help their chances tremendously.
This whole game depends on if Alonso and Marte will play or not. It is unlikely that they will, as both players seemed to be banged up. Alonso's hand could be in pain and they probably don’t want him to grip a bat, especially right now. As for Marte, he seemed to have tweaked something related to his quad/hamstring on a sliding attempt. Expect them both to rest tonight, but if one or both play the Mets' chances skyrocket.
Even without those two, the Mets lineup is very good. Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha are all hitting the ball very well right now. Escobar hit for the cycle in Monday night's 11-5 win.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Former Athletic Sean Manaea will start against Bassitt for the Friars. These two led the Athletics to the postseason a few years back and now will face each other for the very first time. With Bob Melvin managing the Padres, and Jurickson Profar and Marte a part of the series, this is an Oakland reunion that might have A's fans feeling emotional.
Manaea is only (2-3) on the season after what was a strong start for him. Remember, Manaea did not allow a hit in his first start in a Padres uniform. However, on the day he was traded to the Padres, he faced the Athletics in the preseason which was a weird thing to see. Months later, his ERA sits at 3.77 in 62 innings pitched. Manaea and Bassitt have been identical this season which should be fun to watch Wednesday night.
The Padres offense stepped up last night scoring more runs than they have in just about three weeks. The last time they scored seven runs was against the Brewers but before that hadn't done it since May 22.
One name to keep an eye on is Manny Machado. Machado needs more appreciation. Despite being the top hitter in the NL all season long, he isn't being recognized as an MVP favorite. The Padres own the fifth-best record in baseball and Machado has the second-highest average at .325 behind Paul Goldschmidt at .341. Goldy is dominant this season, but Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the league and has the highest WAR in the majors at 3.2.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick
Padres games are usually low-scoring as they are in the middle of the pack in runs and RBIs. However, I like the over in this game as I think a combined score of seven is very possible. Manaea and Bassitt should be decently, but I expect the bullpens to struggle.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick: Over 7 (-115)
