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The New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mets Braves prediction and pick.
Carlos Carrasco goes to the mound for the Mets, while Spencer Strider gets the start for the Braves.
Carlos Carrasco had a 4.85 ERA for the season at the end of June. He has since reduced that ERA by more than a full run, bringing it down to 3.76 with five weeks of solid work. From July 3 through August 9, Carrasco has given up eight earned runs in seven starts encompassing 42 2/3 innings pitched. Carrasco allowed one home run in the month of July. He slightly regressed in his first two starts in August, but he has still been generally good this month: 12 2/3 innings and five earned runs. If he gives the Mets six innings and two earned runs in this game, they should like their chances against Atlanta's starter, whom we'll look at next.
Spencer Strider, the young fireballer who represents the future of the Braves' rotation, has a 3.11 ERA and has provided a big boost for the rotation since joining the starting rotation in late May. He was a reliever in the first two months of the season but then was given a larger plate of responsibilities. He has handled the challenge. Strider is part of the new look of Major League Baseball, in which younger pitchers can often hit 100 miles per hour on the radar gun. Crucially, though, velocity means nothing without late movement and good location. Strider has usually managed to deliver as much.
The big note of concern is that the Mets have worked counts and produced good at-bats against Strider in the past month. Strider held up well on July 12, giving up only one run, but the Mets got him out of the game in the fifth inning. On Aug. 7, Strider did not hold up well, giving up four runs and getting chased in the third inning. It will be fascinating to see how he adjusts against a lineup which is not stacked from top to bottom, but has a lot of seasoned veterans who work counts and will punish mistakes if they are made.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Braves MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-164)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+136)
Over: 8 (-110)
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Under: 8 (-110)
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
Carrasco is pitching extremely well right now, and Strider wobbled in his last game against the Mets. Is Strider ready to answer the challenge? Maybe, but would you want to bet on that? The Mets have had the upper hand in recent meetings against the Braves. Moreover, if the Mets have the lead after seven innings, they know they have Edwin Diaz as their closer, who has been almost automatic this year. The Braves have the smaller margin for error.
Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
Spencer Strider was roughed up by the Mets a week ago. Expect him to be much better in this game. Carlos Carrasco is a good pitcher, but he is not the best the Mets have. The Braves know this series is their last really big chance to make a contest of the National League East Division race. Atlanta must win three out of four games to carry a realistic expectation of overtaking the Mets down the stretch. That makes this first game of the series especially critical. The Braves need this one a lot more than the Mets do. Urgency matters.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game. Strider could dominate or get dominated. Carrasco has been better but is not a shutdown ace. The Mets are the better team, but the Braves need the game more. Just sit back and see what happens. Wait for another game in this series to make a play. If you insist on a Mets Braves prediction, go with the Mets since you're getting a run and a half.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick: Mets +1.5
