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The New York Mets will travel to the Bay Area to take on the San Francisco Giants on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Giants prediction and pick.
This is a hugely important series for both teams. The Mets are coming off of being swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers, which didn't help their pursuit of the NL East crown. New York is now 2.5 games out of first place, trailing both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. The Giants are in a slightly better position than the Mets, as they're currently in first place in the NL West. San Francisco has the Los Angeles Dodgers hot on their heels though, so every win goes a long way.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's matchup.
MLB Odds: Mets-Giants Odds
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New York Mets +1 1/2 (-110)
San Francisco Giants -1 1/2 (-110)
Over 8 runs (-131)
Under 8 runs (+111)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Throughout this season, New York has relied on a strong pitching staff to notch wins. Monday night will be no different, as the Mets will entrust the start to pitcher Rich Hill.
Hill has posted decent numbers on the year, earning himself a 4.05 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Neither number is great, but Hill has some statistical edges over the Giants in this game. He's actually a better pitcher on the road, with his ERA dropping all the way to 3.75 when he plays away from home. San Francisco is also slightly worse against left-handed pitching, earning a lower batting average, OPS, and slugging percentage when they face a lefty as opposed to a righty. A good performance from Hill is certainly possible, despite how good this Giants offense has been all season.
The Mets will have to face Giants pitcher Kevin Gausman in this matchup. Gausman's season-long numbers look like potential Cy Young material, but his recent stretch of starts hasn't been nearly as good. Over Gausman's last seven appearances, he's pitched to the tune of a 4.04 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Those are still pretty good numbers, but it at least shows that the Mets aren't facing a pitcher who's been pitching his best baseball lately.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
Gausman may be in the middle of a small cold streak, but this game is a perfect opportunity to turn things around. The San Francisco ace is set to face a Mets lineup that ranks in the bottom ten in baseball in batting average, OPS, and slugging percentage. It helps that New York is also in the middle of their own little slump at the plate, scoring more than four runs only three times in their last ten games. Gausman shouldn't have any trouble dealing with this lineup.
Luckily for the Giants, their offense is essentially the polar opposite of New York's. To everyone's surprise, San Francisco ranks inside the top ten in baseball in most major batting categories. They're also a much stronger offensive team when they play in San Francisco, sporting better hitting stats across the board compared to their stats on the road. The Giants should be able to tag Hill early and get to the New York bullpen by the fifth inning.
Final Mets-Giants Prediction & Pick
It's nearly impossible to justify a bet on the Mets here. Their horrible offense is facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, and they're sending out a pitcher who has been average at best over the course of the season. It wouldn't be a surprise to see New York shut out, so the Giants should win this game easily.
FINAL PICK: San Francisco Giants -1 1/2 (-110)
