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The New York Mets will finish off a four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Mets and the Phillies split a day-night doubleheader yesterday. Now, they will play the finale as both teams make their push for the playoffs.
The Mets won Game 1 by a score of 8-2. It was a great night for four of their core hitters who combined for nine hits. First, Brandon Nimmo went 2 for 4 with two doubles and a run. Starling Marte added to the fun, going 3 for 4 with an RBI. Also, Francisco Lindor had a good game, going 1 for 5 with a triple. Jeff McNeil outpaced them all, going 3 for 5 with two RBIs. Meanwhile, the Phillies left eight runners on the basepaths.
The Phillies took Game 2 by a 4-1 score. Significantly. they pitched better and got slightly more production from the bats. J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm each produced an RBI. Conversely, the Mets struggled to score, leaving seven runners on base. Pete Alonso was a ghost in both games, combining to go 0 for 7. Moreover, Marta and Nimmo could not recreate the magic, combining to go 0 for 5.
The Mets will start Jose Butto on the mound. Butto is making his major league debut, replacing the injured Taijuan Walker. Significantly, he is a top prospect and the Mets look forward to seeing what he can do.
Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Phillies. Gibson is 8-5 with a 4.30 ERA. Recently, he tossed six innings while allowing three earned runs on six hits with 11 strikeouts. Gibson is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA over three starts in August. Also, he is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA over two starts against the Mets, Gibson tossed six strong innings on May 8, allowing two earned runs on six strikeouts.
Here are the Mets-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-182)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 9.5 (+100)
Under: 9.5 (-122)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets have all the pieces to take down the Phillies. Significantly, they are 13-5 against the Phillies in 2022, and 6-3 at Citizens Bank Park. Their “core five” have taken Philadelphia to task this season.
McNeil is batting .315 with one home run, 10 RBIs, and six runs over 17 games against the Phillies. Additionally, Marte is batting .319 with one home run, eight RBIs, and 16 runs over 18 games against Philadelphia. Nimmo is producing an average of .276 with two home runs, five RBIs, and 12 runs over 16 games against the Phillies. Meanwhile, Lindor is averaging .278 with one home run, 13 RBIs, and 16 runs over 18 games against Philadelphia. Despite his bad performance yesterday, Alonso is still producing well, batting .320 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and 13 runs over 18 games against the Phillies.
The Mets will cover the spread if Butto has a good debut and can give them five quality innings. Additionally, they need their top five hitters to execute at the plate, giving their rookie a chance to breathe.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have been up-and-down without Bryce Harper. However, they have stayed above water, and are actively pushing for a playoff spot. Harper likely will return on September 1. In the meantime, the Phillies must find ways to keep winning without him. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins are their two best weapons aside from Harper. Unfortunately, neither has performed well against the Mets.
Schwarber is batting .207 with three home runs, eight RBIs, and nine runs over 16 games against the team from Queens. Additionally, Hoskins is putting up a putrid mark of .156 with one home run, three RBIs, and three runs over 17 games against the Mets. Neither of these performances will cut it against the Mets. Likewise, Philadelphia needs others to step up. The Phillies mustered two runs in Game 1 yesterday, and four in Game 2. Also, their offense managed two runs on Friday. The Phillies must generate runs, and there are multiple ways of scoring. Ultimately, they need to execute at the plate and wait for their pitch.
The Phillies will cover the spread if they get a good performance out of Gibson. Moreover, they cover the odds if Schwarber and Hoskins can step up and power the offense.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Mets have a top prospect going and they dominate the Phillies. However, it is difficult to bet against Gibson and his track record against New York. Expect the Phillies to salvage this series and end the season series with six wins against the Mets. There is a possibility we might see these two clash in the playoffs. In the meantime, expect Philadelphia to end it on a high note here.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+150)
