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The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds will square off at Great American Ball Park on Tuesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Reds prediction and pick.
This series got off to a fast start as the Mets won a 15-11 thriller on Monday night. New York needs every win it can get right now as desperately tries to hold its dwindling NL East lead. Cincinnati has lost four straight games and is 7.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Mets-Reds odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Reds Odds
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New York Mets +1.5 (-145)
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+125)
Over 10.5 Runs (-117)
Under 10.5 Runs (-103)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets have really struggled to get things going as their injury list continues to steadily grow. With many key players on the shelf, the Mets will have to take games against underwhelming opponents to stay afloat until their guys return. They dropped two out of three against the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, which adds even more pressure on this club to take care of business in Cincinnati. With three teams within six games of them in the NL East, the Mets need these games.
The Mets are 49-42 on the season thanks to their impressive 28-14 home record. Their play on the road has been far less impressive. Their elite pitching staff has struggled in road games this year, allowing almost five runs per game. Despite their road struggles, New York has won 13 of its last 18 games in Cincinnati to date.
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New York will hand the ball to right-hander Robert Stock. Stock has been awful this season with a 0-2 record and 7.88 ERA through his first two starts. He was serviceable in his last start with two earned runs allowed over four innings against Milwaukee on July 7. His only other appearance was with the Chicago Cubs, as he allowed five earned runs to his current team on June 16.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds have lost four games in a row, but the fact that they're still on the edge of the playoff hunt is a positive. Although the Reds are 7.5 games back in the NL Central and unlikely to reach the postseason, their competitive play has been exciting to watch. Cincinnati's offense has been great this season and should continue to improve as the pitching improves in the future. For now, the Reds will look to outslug their opponents
The Reds have lost four straight games despite scoring 21 runs during that stretch. They've allowed an alarming 41 runs over the last four games, which explains their season in a nutshell. With two All-Star starters in this lineup, the Reds are a threat to outscore anyone on any given night. They average 5.51 runs per game at home, which is the third-best mark in all of baseball.
Cincinnati will hand the ball to left-hander Wade Miley as it looks to even the series. Miley is in the midst of a career year with a 7-4 record and 2.80 ERA through 16 starts. The 34-year-old southpaw threw a no-hitter earlier this season and has continued to consistently dominate for his club. He tossed eight innings of scoreless ball against the Brewers in his last start on July 9.
Final Mets-Reds Prediction & Pick
I expect the Reds to bounce back with a big win against a reeling and depleted Mets club. New York is without many key starters and will start this game with a below-average arm on the bump. Wade Miley has been terrific for the Reds this season, so the disparity in this pitching matchup is clear as can be. Cincinnati has a huge edge in offensive production as well, which makes this game theirs for the taking.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds ML (-150)
