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The Washington Nationals take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Brewers prediction and pick.
Erick Fedde gets the call for the Nationals, while Eric Lauer takes the hill for the Brewers.
Erick Fedde has a 4.24 ERA, but that doesn't tell the full story. Fedde has actually been a very good pitcher for Washington this season. The bloated ERA is the product of one particularly awful outing on April 20 against the Diamondbacks. Arizona roughed him up for six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Fedde produced a mediocre outing in his most recent start against the Astros on May 15, giving up three runs in four innings, but the April 20 game against the D-Backs is his only clunker of the year. This is part of the context attached to a Nationals Brewers prediction.
Fedde has given up no more than two runs in five different starts this season (the five starts other than April 20 and May 15). He has been consistently good and has shown growth and development as a pitcher. He can't be viewed as the weak link of the Washington rotation. He has allowed only four home runs in 34 innings pitched, which is almost one home run per nine innings. That will play.
Eric Lauer has a 2.60 ERA. He has had two mediocre starts in which he allowed a total of eight runs in 9 1/3 innings, but in his other four starts, he was dominant. Lauer's four strong starts this season enabled him to eat 25 1/3 innings. In those innings, Lauer allowed a total of just four runs. You're more likely to get the good version of Lauer than the bad one, and when the good version shows up, he is extremely effective. In 34 2/3 innings pitched so far this season, Lauer has walked only eight batters while striking out 49. A strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 6-to-1 is elite stuff, and good information for anyone considering a Nationals Brewers pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Brewers Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-118)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
The Nationals blew a ninth-inning lead to the Marlins on Wednesday night. They hadn't beaten the Marlins once all season, so when they let that late lead slip away, it would have been easy for Washington to lose focus. However, the Nats bounced back and beat Miami in 10 innings. That's the kind of game which can jump-start a team and provide fresh momentum in the midst of struggles. It's something to consider when you look at the Nationals Brewers odds.
Erick Fedde is a solid pitcher, certainly better than he was last year. He has shown this season that he can get elite hitters out, one example being Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani of the Angels in a game earlier this year. The pitching matchup isn't nearly as lopsided as the numbers might suggest.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
After a come-from-behind win over the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, the Brewers have to be feeling great going into this weekend series. Milwaukee wobbled a little last week, losing a series to the Cincinnati Reds, but a Sunday win over the Marlins and Wednesday's comeback over the Braves indicate that this team knows how to stabilize in the midst of difficulties. The Brewers should be roaring after a day off on Thursday.
Eric Lauer has been a strong, consistent pitcher for the Brewers. Manager Craig Counsell can rely on him to pitch six solid innings and put the team in position to win. Lauer doesn't need to dominate; he just needs to continue avoiding walks. That should serve him well against a Washington team whose offense has been erratic this season.
Final Nationals-Brewers Prediction & Pick
Fedde is good, but Lauer is better. The Brewers are a tough and confident ballclub playing at home. Take Milwaukee.
Final Nationals-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5
