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The Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Nationals-Giants prediction and pick.
The Giants have already taken the first two games of this series, locking in a series victory heading into the All-Star break. The Nationals have had a rough few days, giving up a grand slam to a San Diego Padres relief pitcher on Thursday and proceeding to blow a lead in that game and then losing their next two contests to the Giants. The Nationals would love to end the first half of the season on some sort of high note after a disastrous couple of days.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Sunday's game.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Giants Odds
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Washington Nationals +1 1/2 (-117)
San Francisco Giants -1 1/2 (-103)
Over 8 runs (-120)
Under 8 runs (+100)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington's wins have usually come based off the strength of its offense this season, and that will likely be the case again on Sunday.
The Giants will send out starting pitcher Kevin Gausman to face this Washington lineup, a matchup that has usually worked out well for the Nationals in the past. The entire projected starting lineup for the Nationals has faced Gausman multiple times throughout the years, and every single hitter owns a batting average of .250 or above against him.
The Washington batters also have a statistical category going their way in this matchup. They hit slightly better when playing away from home, sporting a higher batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS when playing on the road.
The Nationals will entrust this start to pitcher Erick Fedde. Fedde has been fine this season, with plenty of serviceable but unspectacular showings. One of his better outings came against the Giants, where he pitched five scoreless innings and picked up the win. Fedde has shown that he's capable of working through this tough San Francisco lineup, so a repeat performance is definitely possible.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
While most of the Nationals' hitters have hit Gausman well in the past, that doesn't account for his massive leap in performance this season. He owns an ERA of 1.74 on the year to go with a WHIP of 0.80. Gausman is even better at home, as his opponent batting average drops from .176 when he pitches on the road to .124 when batters are forced to face Gausman in San Francisco.
To make matters even better for Gausman, the Nationals have been worse offensively against right-handed pitching this season. The Washington lineup's batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage all fall when they face a righty, giving Gausman another edge in this game.
The San Francisco lineup has been surprisingly good, and that should continue against Fedde. Besides not being very good, Fedde has a problem with pitching on the road. His ERA rises from 4.40 at home to 4.65 when on the road. The Giants should be able to get to Fedde with relative ease, as the San Francisco offense has been fantastic all year long.
Final Nationals-Giants Prediction & Pick
The Nationals have a decent case to cover the spread in this one, but even money on the Giants is just too good to pass up. San Francisco has the pitching advantage in a big way, and the lineup should be able to ding Fedde early. I expect the Giants to pull off the sweep and head into the All-Star break happy.
FINAL PICK: San Francisco Giants -1 1/2 (-103)
