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The Washington Nationals take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Mets prediction and pick.
Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals, while David Peterson gets the assignment for the Mets.
Erick Fedde has been, by far, the best starter in the Nationals' rotation. He has a 3.55 ERA on a starting staff where the other four current starters have ERAs over 5.40. Fedde has come a long way. Last year, his ERA was 5.47, and his blown save in Game 162 helped the Boston Red Sox avoid a one-game playoff with the Toronto Blue Jays for the right to face the Yankees in the American League Wild Card Game. Fedde was a weak link and a point of vulnerability for Washington, but this year, he has become a strength. He has better stuff than 2021. He trusts it. He keeps his composure when facing a jam. He almost always avoids the big inning. Fedde has allowed more than three runs in only one of his nine starts, more than two runs in only two of his nine starts. Is this really the same guy who was roughed up last year? He is a vastly improved pitcher, which is worth noting in a Nationals Mets prediction based on the current MLB odds.
David Peterson has a 2.16 ERA, but that is based on just five not-very-long starts. Peterson has not pitched into the seventh inning in any of his five starts. He has pitched beyond five full innings in only two of his starts. Yet, in the 25 innings Peterson has worked, he has allowed just seven runs. Four came in one game versus the Braves on May 3. Peterson is not being asked to go deep into games. If he can remain a five-inning, one-run pitcher, that will be a welcome development for a Mets team which is waiting for Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom to return from injuries, and which must hold the fort in the meantime. Peterson has been good, but his small sample size merits caution for anyone making a Nationals Mets pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Mets Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-137)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+114)
Over: 8.5 (-114)
Under: 8.5 (-106)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
Erick Fedde is a good pitcher, and David Peterson still has a lot to prove about how durable and consistent he is. Of course the Mets are the better team, but after a sweep of the Phillies over the weekend, the Mets might be ripe for a letdown game, which will happen a lot over the course of a 162-game season. Washington has its best starter on the mound and thrived on offense over the weekend against the Rockies. The bats of the Nats might be ready to beat the Mets.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
The Mets might be the best team in the National League. The Dodgers and Brewers will have something to say about that, but New York is certainly in the top tier of N.L. teams. The Mets find ways to rally. They immediately respond after opponents score runs against them. Everyone in the batting order, not just the superstars, is contributing. Buck Showalter has this team rolling.
David Peterson has been superb in his limited work this season. The Mets have to feel good when he takes the mound. Until he regresses — if he regresses at all — Peterson merits real trust.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick
This is frankly a stay-away game. Of course the Mets are better than the Nats, and they're playing at home, and they're on a roll after sweeping the Phillies, but this is the Nationals' best starter going up against a spot starter with a limited sample size of innings. Stay away … but if you insist on a pick, of course the Mets are the better choice.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5
