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The San Diego Padres take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Brewers prediction and pick.
Sean Manaea gets the ball for the Padres, while Adrian Houser takes the bump for the Brewers.
Sean Manaea has a 4.02 ERA, certainly higher than what the Padres hoped or expected. Manaea pitched like an ace in his first three starts of the season, going 19 innings and giving up only three runs. In his last six starts, which have covered 37 innings, Manaea has allowed 23 runs. He has given up at least three runs in each of his last six starts. He isn't fooling anyone, though to his credit, he is generally pitching six innings without his best stuff and is usually keeping the Padres in games. Only one of his eight starts has completely spun out of control, a 4 1/3-inning start on April 24 against the Dodgers in which he allowed seven runs. His other starts have generally been six innings with three runs allowed, technically a quality start but only by the smallest of margins. His pitching profile makes it challenging to arrive at a Padres Brewers prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Adrian Houser has a 3.69 ERA. In four of his starts, covering 16 2/3 innings, he has allowed 22 runs. In his other five starts, covering 29 2/3 innings, he has allowed six runs. His last four starts show how unpredictable he is. On May 11 against the Reds: four innings, seven runs allowed (though only three were earned). On May 17 against the Braves: six innings, one run allowed (unearned). On May 23 against these very same San Diego Padres: six innings, one run allowed. On May 28 against the Cardinals: four innings, eight runs allowed (five earned). This is a volatile pitcher, not the kind of pitcher you should feel comfortable about when making a Padres Brewers pick.
However: Houser has a 1.72 in his last three starts against the Padres, going back to last year. That one detail might make the difference.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Brewers Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+152)
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-184)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres just got swept by the Cardinals in St. Louis. This is a good team which has had a bad stretch. The Padres are bound to bust loose with the bats when viewed through that lens. Moreover, San Diego's hitters were smothered by the Brewers in San Diego not that long ago. The Padres have had a chance to study what went wrong for them in their first go-round against Brewer pitchers. Adrian Houser has done very well against them, but at some point, one would think the Padres are going to make the relevant adjustments and change the dynamic of this matchup.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
After losing two straight games to the Cubs, the Brewers are going to be irritated and ornery coming into this game. They know they might face the Padres in October, and they know they handled San Diego hitters in Southern California in May, so they will enter this game with three different sources of motivation: a desire to fix their recent problems, a need to make a statement to a National League contender, and a desire to assert dominance over the Padres' hitters. All those dynamics can work in their favor. Most of all: Adrian Houser does really well against the Padres.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Houser-Padres dynamic works in favor of Milwaukee. This looks and feels like a stay-away game, but if you do make a pick, the Brewers plus a run and a half is a reasonable call.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers +1.5
