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The San Diego Padres will attempt to finish a four-game sweep at Wrigley Field as they face the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Padres-Cubs prediction and pick.
The Padres demolished the Cubs 19-5 at Wrigley on Wednesday night. They trailed 4-2 in the fourth inning when Jurickson Profar clobbered an RBI double to left-center field to cut the deficit to 4-3. Then, Jake Cronenworth slugged an RBI double to drive in two to give the Padres the lead. The Padres continues the onslaught in the fifth with an RBI double from Nomar Mazara that made it 7-4 Padres. Manny Machado came to the plate later in the inning with the Padres up 9-4. Then, Machado blasted a two-run bomb to deep left-center field to make it 11-4.
The Padres added eight more runs before the game ended to win 19-5. Machado finished 3 for 4 with one home run, four RBIs, and two walks. Likewise, Profar went 3 for 5 with an RBI and three runs scored. Cronenworth finished 3 for 6 with two RBIs. Lastly, Luke Voit went 3 for 5 with one home run and two RBIs. The Padres are 40-24 and in a first-place tie in the NL West, while the Cubs are 23-39 and in fourth place in the NL Central.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Cubs odds:
MLB odds: Padres-Cubs Odds
Padres: -1.5 (-122)
Cubs: +1.5 (+102)
Over: 10.5 (-115)
Under: 10.5 (-105)
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are off to one of their best starts in years. Additionally, they are 23-11 on the road, including this current run they are on. Today, they roll with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Musgrove is 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Many figured Blake Snell or Yu Darvish would be the best pitcher in this rotation, but Musgrove has emerged as the true ace. Musgrove is the king of the breaking ball, fooling hitters with the wicked pitch until they realize how late they are. He also threw the first no-hitter in Padres history a year ago. Musgrove has thrown at least six innings in every start in 2022. Also, he has fanned 21 batters over three starts. Musgrove has walked eight hitters over three games, and that could be his only weakness.
The Padres' offense had an explosive game on Wednesday that relayed what they are capable of when everyone is on the same page. They came into this series having struggled to beat the Cubs, not having won a series at Wrigley since 2016. Now, they have a chance to sweep the Cubs and it is thanks to solid pitching and an offense that has come to life.
The Padres rank 16th in batting average, 13th in on-base percentage, eighth in runs, 25th in home runs, and 25th in slugging percentage. Machado has 11 home runs and 42 RBIs, Also, Profar has seven home runs and 34 RBIs, while Cronenworth has six RBIs and 39 RBIs. The Padres have figured out how to drive in runs without needing the long ball. There are days when San Diego struggles to score, and then there are nights like Wednesday where they go off. This Padres' offense is inconsistent yet capable of inflicting damage at any given moment.
The Padres will cover the spread if Musgrove continues his wizardry and fools the Cubs' hitters into swinging at pitches out of the zone. Likewise, Musgrove will dominate if his offense supports him. The Padres do not need to score 19 runs again. Instead, they need five runs to win this game. The Padres cover if they can score at least five.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs will go with Matt Swarmer on the hill today. Swarmer has gone 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA through three starts. He has notched 15 strikeouts over three starts. However, he is inconsistent. Swarmer allowed four earned runs in his last start after allowing one over the previous outing. It came directly after a six-run outing. Which Swarmer will the Cubs see on Thursday?
The Cubs' offense has produced mixed results. Chicago ranks 14th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage, 20th in runs, 17th in home runs, and 14th in slugging percentage. Patrick Wisdom has led the charge with 12 home runs and 31 RBIs. Also, Willson Contreras has been stellar, batting .277 with 12 home runs and 26 RBIs. Wisdom is 3 for 10 throughout the three games against the Padres. Meanwhile, Contreras is 4 for 12 with two home runs and three RBIs over three games against the Padres.
The Cubs cover the spread if they can get decent pitching from Swarmer and better performance from a bullpen that allowed 14 earned runs on Wednesday night. Also, they need the offense to click. Wisdom and Contreras need support from the rest of the lineup.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The Padres are attempting a rare four-game sweep in Chicago. Musgrove has been amazing all season and likely will continue his dominance. Expect the Padres to take the lead and hold it, covering this showdown and sweeping the series.
Final Padres-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Padres: -1.5 (-122)
