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The San Diego Padres take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Dodgers prediction and pick.
MacKenzie Gore gets the assignment for the Padres, while Clayton Kershaw takes the bump for the Dodgers.
MacKenzie Gore electrified the National League with the first two months of his much-anticipated rookie season. Gore established a 1.50 ERA through his first nine starts, covering 48 innings pitched. Gore allowed just eight runs in those 48 innings. He never allowed more than three runs, and he allowed more than one run in just two of his nine starts. He was a legitimate Cy Young Award contender.
Then he made two starts against the Colorado Rockies, and everything changed. Gore got tagged for 14 runs in those two starts, pitching only 6 1/3 innings. Gore's three worst starts of the year have been against the Rockies (twice) and Cubs (once). He has handled the Braves, Guardians, Phillies, and Brewers. He did pitch well against the Phillies in his last start on June 24, but it will be interesting to see if he stabilizes or loses his edge against the Dodgers.
Clayton Kershaw, who missed five weeks of the season due to an injury suffered in early May, entered his most recent start on June 28 with an ERA of exactly two runs. After getting pounded by the Rockies for six runs in four innings, that ERA rose nearly one whole run, to 2.94. That was a Coors Field start, so maybe it doesn't mean anything, but Kershaw has pitched only 19 innings since his return from injury. He will probably figure things out eventually, but will he figure out the Padres in this start on Sunday? It's not an easy question to answer.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-137)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+114)
Over: 7.5 (-114)
Under: 7.5 (-106)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres aren't going to keep losing to the Dodgers forever. Even in the most lopsided baseball matchups, the inferior team grabs a win every now and then. Consider the Rays-Orioles head-to-head. Tampa Bay went 18-1 against Baltimore in 2021, but the O's have won two series from the Rays this year. The Padres are a much better team than the Orioles, and they just can't keep losing to the Dodgers. They're 1-14 in their last 15 against L.A. The odds suggest they'll be 2-14 after this game. MacKenzie Gore has been very good this year against non-Colorado opponents. He should pitch well and grab a victory.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After another win over the Padres, why would you pick against the Dodgers? This huge four-game series has been a wipeout. The Dodgers have outscored San Diego 15-4 and have not allowed more than two runs in any of the three games. Clayton Kershaw should be able to contain the Padres, and an uncertain MacKenzie Gore might have problems with a group of Los Angeles hitters which has been locked in over the past few days. The Dodgers are playing great baseball, and their excellence this season makes it hard to doubt them.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The Dodgers have dominated the Padres, but this streak is going to end at some point. This is a stay-away game, but if you must pick an outcome, might as well keep rolling with L.A. until San Diego makes a stand.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
