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The San Diego Padres take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Mets prediction and pick.
Joe Musgrove takes the mound for San Diego, while Carlos Carrasco gets the assignment for New York.
Joe Musgrove has a 2.42 ERA. He has turned in an outstanding first half of the season for the Padres. Now he begins his second half. Musgrove has been so relentlessly consistent that he has allowed more than two earned runs in only three of his starts this year. He has allowed more than three earned runs only twice this season. That is phenomenal reliability and consistency. Plenty of talented pitchers — think Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays as a representative example — will deliver a lights-out performance once every three or four starts but will get hammered in their bad starts and will fail to contain the damage in other starts. They'll give up eight runs in a horrible start and will allow four runs in 5 2/3 innings in their mediocre starts. The great pitchers establish a high floor in addition to a high ceiling, and Musgrove has been legitimately great for San Diego in 2022. His floor is a two-run, six-inning outing. That's his regular standard, not an occasional result. That is the difference between Musgrove and other similarly skilled but not as dependable pitchers.
Carlos Carrasco has a 4.27 ERA. He had a 3.52 ERA on June 6. Then, in his next four starts, he allowed 19 runs in 17 2/3 innings, his worst stretch of the season. His ERA ballooned to 4.85. However, in his last three starts, Carrasco has pitched to a 1.56 ERA to lower his season ERA by more than half a run. What he lacked in late June during his disastrous four-start sequence has been replenished in July. The Mets, having lost each of the first two games of this series, badly need a gem from Carrasco, especially with Musgrove on the other side.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Mets Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-178)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres have stormed into New York and shut down the Mets, and not just with their best pitchers. Yes, Yu Darvish is having a great season, and he smothered the Mets on Friday, but Blake Snell — who has not had a particularly strong year — also dominated the Mets on Saturday. The Padres have allowed two runs in 18 innings against the Mets, and now they get to throw Joe Musgrove, their very best starter, at the scuffling Metropolitans, who look as weak and vulnerable as they have all season long. The Mets are in the midst of only their second three-game losing streak this season. They rarely lose stacks of games in a row, but they're really fighting themselves right now. The Padres have a great pitcher against a team which is doubting itself. That's a great setup for the Friars.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
The Mets have not lost four in a row all year. Why start now? That point aside, Carlos Carrasco is pitching really well in the month of July. The Mets' hitters are due for a breakout game. They know the Atlanta Braves started the day only half a game behind them in the National League East standings. The Mets are a good team, and they have played well this year when they have faced urgent moments and tense situations. This is one of them.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick
This is a good stay-away game, because the Mets are the better team but are in a slump. It's hard to know which way this game will break. If you insist on making a pick, though, the Padres plus a run and a half, with Musgrove on the hill, is a decent play.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5
