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The San Diego Padres take on the Colorado Rockies. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Rockies prediction and pick.
Sean Manaea goes to the hill for the Padres, while Jose Urena will make this particular start for the Rockies.
Sean Manaea has a 4.18 ERA. He posted a 1.42 ERA in the first three starts of his season. Since then, he has been a below-average pitcher. In Manaea's last 12 starts, he has allowed at least three earned runs in nine of them. It's true that he has allowed more than four earned runs in just two of them, but the bottom line with Manaea is that he regularly gives up three or four runs per start, usually over six innings. Four runs in six innings is a 6.00 ERA. Three runs in six innings, though technically a quality start, translates to a 4.50 ERA. Manaea's 4.18 ERA is as low as it is only because of that great three-start sequence back in April. He has been worse than a 4.18 ERA pitcher in May and June. His most recent start, on July 4, did not go well. The Mariners got to him for four runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings. Manaea badly needs a good start before the All-Star break so he can reset for the second half.
Jose Urena pitched last week against the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. He was making his first appearance since April 26, when he was pitching for the Brewers. Urena was strong in his Rockies debut. He went 6 2/3 innings and limited the Dodgers to one run on five hits. If this is the guy who shows up against the Padres, San Diego is in real trouble. Yet, one start is a very small sample size, and it remains to be seen how Urena will pitch in Coors Field.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Rockies MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Rockies Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (-102)
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-118)
Over: 11.5 (-112)
Under: 11.5 (-108)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres have lost 10 straight games at Coors Field. They have lost five straight to the Rockies this year. These are two ridiculously absurd and improbable streaks which are bound to end. This can't go on forever. Jose Urena has to pitch at Coors Field, which could turn into a disaster for him. The Padres just got embarrassed on Sunday, losing 12-0 to the Giants. You don't think the Padres are going to come out angry and fired up for this game? They're going to take no prisoners in Denver and storm to victory.
Why The Rockies Could Cover the Spread
The Rockies have been the Padres' kryptonite, baffling San Diego in five straight wins. Given how well Jose Urena pitched last week against the mighty Dodgers, the Rockies have the pitching edge in this game. Sean Manaea simply hasn't been performing well for the past month, and so even if the Padres score four or five runs, Colorado can score even more.
Final Padres-Rockies Prediction & Pick
If you think the Padres can't keep losing to the Rockies, that's true … but this is not the pitching matchup which offers supreme comfort in that regard. Picking the Padres makes sense, but it doesn't feel like a lock. Frankly, stay away from this game, but if you insist on making a pick, ride with San Diego.
Final Padres-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
