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The Detroit Tigers are set to host the San Diego Padres today in the final matchup of a three-game series at Comerica Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Padres-Tigers prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Detroit cruised to a 12-4 win in the series opener, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. San Diego answered back on Tuesday, though, securing a 6-4 victory in extra innings. The Tigers erased an early three-run Padres lead before a bases-loaded hit by pitch and a two-out, two-run single by Jorge Alfaro in the top of the 10th broke the game open.
San Diego is in the middle of the National League wild-card race at 55-44, while Detroit is fighting to stay out of last place in the AL Central at 39-59.
Here are the Padres-Tigers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Tigers Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+132)
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-160)
Over: 7 (-118)
Under: 7 (-104)
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
While San Diego's Yu Darvish and Detroit's Tarik Skubal have both delivered respectable 2022 campaigns, with ERAs of 3.28 and 3.88, respectively, Darvish has been the superior of the two — especially as of late. Darvish is 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 10.35 strikeouts per nine innings over his last seven starts. Recent history doesn't favor Skubal, who is amid what has been by far his worst stretch of the season. He's posted a 2-5 record with a 6.08 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 8.76 strikeouts per nine innings over his last seven outings.
Detroit's woes against right-handing pitching are another reason to back San Diego in this matchup. Entering Tuesday night, the Tigers ranked last or second-to-last in the MLB in batting average, RBIs, slugging percentage, and OPS against righties. The Padres certainly haven't been elite against left-handing pitching, but the results have been notably better than they've been against righties. As of Tuesday night, they ranked ninth in the MLB with 125 runs driven in against left-handed pitchers.
Both first baseman Luke Voit and third baseman Manny Machado have been solid since the All-Star break, with each posting three RBIs and a batting average above .270 over their last five games. Voit has been a little better at getting on-base, evidenced by his .409 on-base percentage, while Machado has an impressive .455 slugging percentage during this span.
Why The Tigers Could Cover The Spread
Skubal's recent struggles are impossible to ignore, but his most recent outing has generated optimism that he could be headed for a turnaround. He went six innings in a win over the Oakland Athletics on June 21, striking out nine batters while allowing no earned runs and two hits — all feats he hadn't accomplished since early June, which by no coincidence, is when his tailspin began. Skubal posted a 2.15 ERA and .215 opponent's batting average through his first 10 starts of 2022, six of which he didn't allow an earned run in. If he delivers this version of himself today, the Padres could be in trouble.
As mentioned above, the Tigers' struggles against right-handing pitching is a negative that shouldn't be overlooked when betting on today's matchup. However, there are a few bright spots for Detroit at the plate. Shortstop Javier Baez is one place to start, with his 16 runs scored in the last 30 days ranking 13th in all of baseball. He also has seven extra-base hits and two home runs during this span.
Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera has enjoyed significantly better hitting numbers at home, where he's posted a .336/.383/.432 slash line with a .815 OPS. It's also worth noting that three of his four home runs and 22 of his 36 RBIs this year have come at Comerica Park.
Final Padres-Tigers Prediction & Pick
While Skubal's recent strong showing against Oakland is a reason to feel good about where he's headed, his body of work over the starts leading up to that must be weighed against his success while facing one of the worst teams in baseball. A nine-run outing in his second start of the year caused Darvish's ERA to balloon early on, but he's been among the most consistent pitchers in the National League since then, posting ERAs of 3.33 or lower in each of the past three months. This, as well as Detroit's issues against right-handed pitching, make the Padres a logical play at -1.5 (+130). An under set at seven runs just doesn't leave enough room for error, especially for two teams who, uncharacteristically, have already put up a total of 26 runs this series
Final Padres-Tigers Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5 (+132)
