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The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs will continue their four-game series Wednesday night. The Phillies have been exploding offensively against Chicago, dropping a combined 28 runs in the last two games. The Cubs finally woke up their offense in Tuesday night's game, where they scored 10 runs of their own. Chicago still took the loss despite that 10-run outburst, and they'll look to get back in the win column Wednesday as the Phillies look to clinch a series victory. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Cubs prediction and pick.
Before the pick, let's see how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday night's game.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Cubs Odds
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-132)
Chicago Cubs ML (+122)
Over 7 1/2 runs (+105)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-125)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have been as hot as any team in the MLB in this last stretch of games before the All-Star break. In their last ten games, Philadelphia has scored less than four runs only twice. Their offensive hot streak should continue against Chicago starter Alec Mills.
Mills has filled a variety of roles for the Cubs this season, earning himself a save as well as five starts throughout the year. Unfortunately, Mills hasn't been particularly good in any of those roles. He owns an ERA of 4.85 to go with a 1.45 WHIP on the season.
Mills' starts haven't been particularly impressive. His typical outing has been five innings and two earned runs, but I don't anticipate that holding up against the Phillies. Even if he does perform that well, the Cubs' bullpen will have to pitch four innings of good baseball to keep them in the game. Chicago's relievers have been getting destroyed lately, giving up seven runs over the last two games.
While the Cubs will struggle to pitch well in this game, I don't expect the Phillies to have the same problem. Zack Wheeler will make the start for Philadelphia Wednesday night.
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Wheeler has been fantastic all year long. He owns a 2.05 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP on the season, with both of those stats slightly improving in his last seven starts. Those stats speak for themselves, but Wheeler will have another statistical advantage in this matchup. The Cubs struggle against right-handed pitching, with their batting average taking a dive from .253 against lefties to .216 against righties. The Cubs have been absolutely horrible offensively in their 11-game losing streak, and I don't think that will change in this one.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
In order to win this game, the Cubs will have to improve on their terrible offensive performances. Luckily for them, they have a statistical edge in a couple of categories.
Chicago is a much better hitting team when they play at Wrigley Field, experiencing a jump in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. Some of their batters have also fared well against Wheeler in the past, as five projected starters have a batting average of .250 or above against the Phillies ace.
The Cubs pitching also has some advantages in this contest. Philadelphia is slightly worse against left-handed pitching than they are against righties, with all of the major batting stats dropping a little bit whenever they face a right-handed pitcher. The Phillies are also worse offensively on the road, sporting a lower batting average, OBP and OPS when playing away from home.
Final Phillies-Cubs Prediction & Pick
The Cubs have to win eventually, but I don't think this is the game they break their streak. Philly has their ace on the mound in Zach Wheeler, and I'm honestly surprised that the Phillies aren't a bigger favorite on the Moneyline. Look for Philadelphia to continue their winning ways and take their third win in a row.
FINAL PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-132)
