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The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Miami Marlins to start a three-game series in South Florida between two NL East rivals. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Phillies-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Phillies are 5-5 over 10 games. Likewise, they are 5-5 over 10 road games. The Phillies are 22-22 on the road. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 5-5 over 10 games. Miami is also 5-5 over its last 10 home games. The Marlins are 22-19 at home.
The Marlins lead the season series 4-3. The Phillies took the series in their last meeting, a three-game set in Philadelphia last month. However, the Marlins won 3 of 4 in their four-game series in April. The Phillies are 7-14 in Miami since 2020.
The Phillies will send Kyle Gibson to the hill today. Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.53 ERA. Alternatively, he is 0-2 with a 5.22 ERA over eight road starts. Gibson is 1-1 with a 5.54 ERA in seven starts since June 1. He is 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts against the Marlins in 2022. However, Gibson did significantly better at home than on the road. He lasted 4 2/3 innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits with a home run and three walks. Alternatively, Gibson went eight innings, allowing one earned run (on a solo home run) and seven hits. Gibson is o-2 with a 10.80 ERA in two career starts in Miami.
The Marlins will go with Sandy Alcantara on the hill. Alcantara is having a spectacular season, at 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA. He is 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA in eight starts since June 1. Alcantara tossed seven scoreless innings in his last start, allowing six hits. He is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Phillies in 2022. Consequently, the stats are nearly identical, as he allowed two earned runs in each start. Alcantara is 2-3 with a 4.10 ERA in his career against the Phillies.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Marlins odds:
MLB odds: Phillies-Marlins Odds
Phillies: +1.5 (-164)
Marlins: -1.5 (+136)
Over: 7 (-102)
Under: 7 (-120)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies still await the return of Bryce Harper. Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber carry the load. These two are the backbone of the Phillies' offense right now.
Hoskins is batting .248 with 18 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 47 runs. However, he is batting .207 (6 for 29) with one home run and three RBIs in his career against Alcantara. Hoskins does better against the other Marlins' pitchers, as he is batting .423 (11 for 26) with two home runs, seven RBIs, and five runs scored against the Marlins in 2022.
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Schwarber is batting .214 with 28 home runs, 57 RBIs, and 61 runs. Alternatively, he has excelled against Alcantara, batting .333 (4 for 12) with two doubles against the Marlins' ace. Schwarber is only batting .208 (5 for 24) with one home run, one RBI, and five runs scored over six games against the Marlins in 2022.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Gibson pitches an amazing game, going at least seven innings and allowing fewer than two runs. Also, Hoskins and Schwarber need to hit the baseball and spark the Phillies' offense.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have an ace on the mound and three hitters that could inflict damage. Thus, Miami will need production from all of them to have a chance to avoid giving their ace the dreaded “no -decision”.
Garrett Cooper is batting .295 with seven home runs, 40 RBIs, and 28 runs scored. He is batting .294 (5 for 17) with one home run, two RBIs, and two runs scored over five games against the Phillies in 2022. Additionally, Cooper is batting .375 (3 for 8) with one home run, one RBI, and two runs scored at home against the Phillies this year.
Jesus Aguilar is batting .248 with 11 home runs, 37 RBIs, and 32 runs scored over 80 games. He is batting .280 with one home run, seven RBIs, and two runs scored over seven games against the Phillies. Likewise, Aguilar is batting .333 with three RBIs in four games against the Phillies at home in 2022.
Jazz Chisholm is batting .254 with 14 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 39 runs scored. He is batting .238 (5 for 21) with one home run, six RBIs, and five runs scored over six games against the Phillies. Moreover, Chisholm has excelled at home, batting .333 (3 for 9) with five RBIs, and three runs over three games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Alcantara dominates, and his offense can give him offense. Alcantara will likely give up two runs, so four runs offensively might be enough to cover the spread.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick
Alcantara is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Additionally, the Marlins dominate the Phillies at home. Those factors make for a bet that is difficult to not make. Expect the Marlins to take the first game of this series and cover the odds.
Final Phillies-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins: -1.5 (+136)
