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The Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Phillies Mets prediction and pick.
Zach Eflin gets the starting assignment for the Phillies, while Taijuan Walker gets the ball for the Mets.
Zach Eflin has a 3.65 ERA. In three of his seven starts, Eflin has given up 14 runs in 14 innings. In his other four starts, he allowed four runs in 23 innings. The Mets rocked him for six runs in 4 1/3 innings on May 1. Eflin has not been consistent, but he has shown that when dialed in, he can be extremely impressive. The fact that the Phillies are making a second trip to Citi Field within the same month, however, means that Met hitters are familiar with Eflin and, more particularly, have been able to study his release point against the hitting backdrop of their own ballpark. That level of familiarity means they are more likely to see and read the spin of the ball coming out of Eflin's hand. That's a nuance worth noting when you think about a Phillies Mets pick in this game.
Taijuan Walker has a 2.70 ERA, but his worst outing of the year came against the Phillies on May 5. Walker gave up seven runs in four innings in that game. He did, however, pitch five shutout innings against Philadelphia on April 30, so it's not as though he can't get Phillie hitters out. Walker has been even more erratic than Eflin. His last five starts have involved these run totals (April 30-May 22): 0, 7, 0, 3, 0. Once again — as is the case with a lot of pitchers — one doesn't know which iteration will show up from one start to the next. This is part of the landscape when considering a Phillies Mets prediction.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-196)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+162)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies fell behind the Mets 7-0 after five innings in the first game of this weekend series, but then scored six runs in the sixth inning to make New York sweat. Philadelphia didn't win Friday night's game, but it served notice that no lead is safe for the Mets. This occurs, of course, against the backdrop of the reality that the Mets scored seven runs in the ninth to stun the Phillies earlier this season in Philadelphia. The Phillies will be intent on bouncing back and evening up this series. There's a lot of urgency in the Phillies' clubhouse to make a push in the standings before the Mets pull away in the National League East. This is one factor to think about when making a Phillies Mets prediction.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
After losing two consecutive games to the Giants in San Francisco, the Mets stormed to a 7-0 lead Friday night and reminded everyone that if they have a few bad games, they regularly respond well. The Mets are a better and more complete team than the Phillies, one component being their defense. The Phillies made an error which helped the Mets bust out to a 3-0 first-inning lead, all while Pete Alonso made a spectacular diving stop of a ground ball to preserve that lead in the early innings. The Mets do more things well than the Phillies, and since Philadelphia does not have its best pitcher on the mound for this game, you should choose New York when making a Phillies Mets pick.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
You should stay away from this game, since it's a bounce-back spot for the Phillies in a matchup of not-quite-elite pitchers. If you lean in one direction, take the better team, which is obviously the Mets.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5
