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The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Pirates Dodgers prediction and pick.
Zach Thompson takes the mound for the Pirates, while Walker Buehler gets the call for the Dodgers.
Zach Thompson has a 5.50 ERA. However, before you write him off in this game or on a broader level, do realize that he has improved considerably from the start of the season. Thompson's monthly splits are very different. In April: 21 runs allowed on 23 hits in 14 1/3 innings with four home runs conceded. In May: five runs allowed on 16 hits in 20 innings with only one home run conceded. Thompson is improving, and if he continues to improve on Monday night, the Dodgers will be in for a battle.
Walker Buehler has a 2.91 ERA. That's a strong ERA for most pitchers, but for a starter with Buehler's upside and his collected achievements, it's actually a slight disappointment. He hasn't been terrible, but Buehler expects to dominate, and he certainly hasn't done that so far this year. Buehler has given up fewer than two runs in only three of his nine starts. In his last three starts, Buehler has given up a total of 10 runs in 16 innings. That is well below his standards. The Dodgers need Buehler to be a true stopper who can more regularly shut down the opposition, primarily because they've seen it before and know he can be better than he currently is.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pirates-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Dodgers Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (+132)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-160)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
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Why The Pirates Could Cover the Spread
The Pirates won a series from the Dodgers earlier this season in Pittsburgh, so that is a starting point in the conversation about whether Pittsburgh can win this game in Los Angeles. If you are thinking about taking the big underdogs in your Pirates Dodgers pick, you need to note that Walker Buehler has been mortal this season. An ERA of almost three runs is not where Buehler wants or expects to be. He has had some wobbly moments, and it takes just one or two wobbles in a game — one three-run home run, one bad inning with several hits strung together — to give the underdog the big upper hand.
Also note that the Pirates pitched really well against the San Diego Padres over the weekend. They didn't win the series but came really close. This is a competitive team which can by a fly in the ointment for the Dodgers.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After losing a series to the Pirates earlier in May, the Dodgers will be intent on making sure that doesn't happen again. The Dodgers' worst week of their season involved series losses to the Pirates and Phillies. The Dodgers won their second series of the year against the Phillies. Expect them to win this series against the Pirates, which means they will likely win this game to get off to a good start and avoid a situation in which they have to win on Tuesday and Wednesday to take the series.
Walker Buehler is not pitching great, but he isn't pitching poorly, either. Zach Thompson is the clearly inferior pitcher in this matchup, against a Dodger team which just swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in a four-game romp in Phoenix over the weekend. A Pirates Dodgers prediction does not have to be complicated.
Final Pirates-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The fact that the Pirates won a series from the Dodgers earlier in the year makes it easy to pick Los Angeles, knowing that it's very unlikely Pittsburgh can catch lightning in a bottle a second time.
Final Pirates-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
