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The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will play the fourth of their five-game series on Thursday night in Toronto. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Rays-Blue Jays prediction and pick, laid out below.
The Tampa Bay Rays have overachieved this season, with a 79-62 record, sitting in third place in the AL East, and just half a game behind Toronto for the top AL Wild Card spot. Once again, Tampa Bay is getting things done in an unconventional way, using openers and many relievers en route to their impressive record.
Toronto has gone 80-62 on the season, second place in the AL East, and first place in the AL Wild Card. The team has gone 7-3 in their last ten games, overtaking Tampa Bay for both second place in the AL East and the first spot in the AL Wild Card. The remaining two games of this series are pivotal for the Wild Card race.
Here are the Rays-Blue Jays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Blue Jays Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+168)
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Drew Rasmussen, tonight's starting pitcher, has impressed in his first full season as a starter. Rasmussen has gone 10-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 122.2 innings across 24 starts. The 26-year-old righty has walked just 5.5 percent of the batters he has faced this season, which ranks in the 86th percentile across the league. Rasmussen's slider, which he throws about 25 percent of the time, has held batters to a lowly .209 average, with 49 of his 113 strikeouts coming on the pitch. Rasmussen's impeccable control is somewhat heightened by a high chase rate. Batters have swung at 33.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, which ranks in the 90th percentile.
Tampa Bay's strong bullpen is missing a key piece in Brooks Raley, who was ineligible for the trip across the border. The group owns a 3.36 ERA, which ranks eighth in the league, in 599.1 innings, the most in the league. Jason Adam has seen the bulk of the closing duties, leading the team with eight saves, striking out 71 batters in 58.1 innings.
Randy Arozarena has led the offense all season, with 19 home runs, 78 RBI, 36 doubles, and 30 stolen bases, all of which lead the team. Arozarena has been on a tear recently, hitting .310 with five home runs and nine stolen bases in his last 30 games. Isaac Paredes is second on the team with 18 home runs in just 92 games. Yandy Diaz leads the team with a .295 average and .403 on-base percentage, ranking second with 32 doubles. Diaz has belted eight home runs and has walked 75 times compared to just 52 strikeouts. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the league with 257 doubles.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Ross Stripling will be tonight's starting pitcher for Toronto. Stripling has appeared in 28 games this season, making 20 starts. In those 20 starts, Stripling has pitched to a 6-4 record, with a 2.91 ERA in 102 innings. Overall, Stripling is 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA and a save in 113 innings, striking out 98 batters. Stripling's numbers have been elevated by envious command, with his 4.2 percent walk rate ranking in the 96th percentile in the league. Stripling's changeup is the best pitch in his arsenal, with batters hitting just .192 against the offering.
Toronto's 3.67 bullpen ERA ranks eleventh in the league, with 518 strikeouts in 530 innings. Yimi Garcia has pitched to a 2.39 ERA in 52.2 innings, striking out 47 batters. David Phelps has turned back the clock to pitch to a 2.65 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. Lefty Tim Mayza owns a 2.85 ERA with only nine walks in 41 innings. Closer Jordan Romano has been otherworldly, with a 1.94 ERA, 33 saves, and 64 strikeouts in 55.2 innings. Batters have hit just .184 against Romano.
Toronto's offense has kept this team in contention all season. Fan favorite Vlad Guerrero, Jr. leads the team with 27 home runs, adding 33 doubles and 82 RBI. Bo Bichette leads the team with 39 doubles and 87 RBI, hitting .282 with 24 home runs and nine stolen bases. Matt Chapman, in addition to his elite defense, has hit 24 home runs and is tied for the team lead with 56 walks. Teoscar Hernandez and George Springer both have belted 20 home runs, with Hernandez adding 28 doubles and Springer leading the team with 13 stolen bases. Catcher Alejandro Kirk, another fan favorite, leads the team with a .295 batting average and 56 walks, hitting 13 home runs and 19 doubles, also walking more than he has struck out. Toronto ranks second with a .261 batting average and is third with 275 doubles.
Final Rays-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
Tampa Bay has the pitching advantage in this one.
Final Rays-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+168), under 7.5 (-122)
