Subscribe
Follow Us
The Tampa Bay Rays take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Rays Twins prediction and pick.
Drew Rasmussen takes the bump for the Rays, while Devin Smeltzer goes to the hill for the Twins.
Drew Rasmussen has a 3.02 ERA. In his last eight starts, he has allowed more than one run only twice, more than three runs only once. In that stretch of eight starts, he has reduced his early-season ERA of 5.25 by more than 2.2 runs. Rasmussen has given up only three home runs in those eight starts, covering 41 2/3 innings. He has been a terrifically consistent part of the Rays' starting rotation, one of the main reasons this team is once again on track to make the playoffs. Tampa Bay is hard to go against when you make a Rays Twins prediction because Kevin Cash's team always gets the level of pitching it needs to remain a top-tier American League ballclub.
Devin Smeltzer has pitched only 28 innings this season, making his first start on May 14. Yet, even though his sample size is small, Smeltzer has been outstanding when the Twins have given him a chance to show what he is capable of. Smeltzer has a 1.93 ERA, allowing just six runs in those 28 innings. He hasn't given up more than two runs in any of his five starts, though he has averaged fewer than six innings per start. He has allowed only two home runs (both in his most recent start on June 5 against the Blue Jays). He is a good reason to go with Minnesota in a Rays Twins pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rays-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Rays-Twins Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+146)
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-178)
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Rays Could Cover the Spread
The Rays just swept the St. Louis Cardinals, a very good team. They got a lot of great pitching plus a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 10th on Tuesday to create that sweep. That's vintage Rays baseball: anchored by pitching, getting just enough hitting. This is not a Judge-Rizzo-Stanton Murderer's Row batting order, but the pitching is always going to be there. Devin Smeltzer of the Twins has been superb, but that small sample size screams for some regression to the mean.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
After blowing a 7-3 lead to the Yankees on Thursday night, the Twins are going to be very motivated. They have Carlos Correa back after his stay on the COVID-19 list. Devin Smeltzer has been a terrific addition to their rotation, and until he stumbles, it is hard to go against him. Tampa Bay is also traveling to this game from St. Petersburg after winning a getaway day game versus the Cardinals on Thursday. The Twins have been at home this week and should be fresher.
Final Rays-Twins Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game because Smeltzer is still such an unknown entity as a big-league pitcher. He might continue to be great, but it wouldn't be surprising at all to see some regression. Truly, stay away from this game, but if you insist on making a pick, the Twins getting a run and a half makes the most sense.
Final Rays-Twins Prediction & Pick: Twins +1.5
