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The Red Sox and Yankees begin a three-game set in the Bronx on Tuesday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Yankees prediction and pick.
Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, fighting for both the division title as well as a Wild Card spot. The Red Sox currently have control of the American League's first Wild Card spot, while the Yankees remain slightly out of the playoff picture, just 2.0 games behind Boston. This series will in all likelihood have a major implication on the playoff chances for both ball clubs.
Red Sox vs. Yankees games always seem to live up to the hype as one of the the best rivalries in baseball. This series should be no different, as Tanner Houck and Jordan Montgomery take the rubber for the series opener. Let's check out the odds for tonight's first game of the double-header.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Yankees Odds
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Boston Red Sox -1 1/2 (+115)
New York Yankees +1 1/2 (-140)
Over 7 runs (-120)
Under 7 runs (+100)
Why the Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox send rookie Tanner Houck to the hill, which already is a good sign for the Sox. Out of his eight total appearances this season, his two best outings both occurred vs. the Yankees, in consecutive weeks. In this two game span, Houck pitched 7.2 innings of one-run ball (no earned runs), allowed just three hits, walked three batters, and struck out 11. On the season as a whole, he's limited the longball, which is ideal since he's pitching tonight in the batter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Boston enters this game on a three-game winning streak, although against the lowly Orioles. Despite their previous opponent, the Red Sox managed to score at least six runs in each of these games, winning by no fewer than four runs in any of the three games. Yes, the Yankees are a much tougher opponent, but with Boston's offense riding a hot streak, asking them to cover just 1 1/2 run spread is very little given their recent success at the plate.
Thus far in 2021, the Red Sox are 10-3 vs. the Yankees, winning by over 1 1/2 runs in seven of those wins. Also, the Sox went into the Bronx and swept the Yankees in the team's first meetings of the season in early June. So Boston has already proven they can handle business on the road against these same Yankees.
Why the Yankees Could Cover the Spread
Jordan Montgomery has made two recent starts against the Red Sox (one home and one away) and pitched effectively in both games. Between those two mid-July starts, Montgomery went 11 2/3 innings, allowed six hits, three runs, three walks, and struck out ten batters.
In their last ten games, the Yankees have only been underdogs three times, going 2-1 in those games. Being favorites in those other seven games, the oddsmakers have largely been siding with the Yanks. Just like the Red Sox, the Yankees are also currently in the midst of a three-game win streak, including two wins on the road against the high-powered White Sox. In a game that should be expected to stay under the O/U line of 7 runs, this game will be played close throughout. Montgomery has done a great job at limiting runs against the Red Sox this season, which doesn't much much pressure on the Yankees offense. Although they strike out a lot, power threats in this lineup are throughout. Don't be surprised to see one of Joey Gallo or Giancarlo Stanton go deep against the Sox rookie hurler.
Final Red Sox-Yankees Prediction
Both teams have one of their most underrated pitchers going in this game. Houck and Montgomery are both capable of keeping runs off the board, but the stat that stands out to me here is the teams' records ATS this season, specifically be venue. While the Red Sox are 34-25 ATS on the road in 2021, the Yankees are just 23-35 ATS at home on the year. With the Red Sox coming off one of their best hitting series of the season, and getting plus money here on the run line, I like the Sox to win by at least a few runs.
FINAL RED SOX-YANKEES PICK: Red Sox win, 5-1. (-1 1/2, +115)
