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The Cincinnati Reds take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Check out our MLB odds series for our Reds Pirates prediction and pick.
Connor Overton gets the start for the Reds, while J.T. Brubaker gets the ball for the Pirates.
Connor Overton has a 2.53 ERA, but it flows from just two starts. They were both very similar. Overton pitched into the sixth inning but did not finish the inning. He gave up no more than two runs or six hits or two walks in his starts, limiting damage and containing opposing lineups. This is a level of consistency the Reds would love to get from their other starters. Obviously, with only two appearances under his belt this season, Overton has to prove he can do this on a more extensive basis. It is notable that in his most recent start this past Saturday, he beat the Pirates in Cincinnati, giving up two runs in 5 1/3 innings. He scattered six hits, didn't walk anyone, and struck out four. A natural centerpiece of this game is how the Pirates adjust to Overton. That will shape the MLB odds and a Reds Pirates prediction you might make.
J.T. Brubaker has a 5.68 ERA. That is mostly the product of his first two appearances this season. Against the Cardinals and Nationals in early April, he failed to pitch into the fifth inning. He pitched a combined total of 7 1/3 innings in those two games, allowing a total of eight runs. Instructively, he walked seven hitters in those 7 1/3 innings. He had a 9.82 ERA after those two games. Since then, he has whittled down his ERA by just over four runs. The key: fewer walks. Seven in 7 1/3 innings is atrocious, close to a one-walk-per-inning ratio. In Brubaker's next four appearances, he has walked seven in 18 innings, a far better rate but still something he can improve on.
In his most recent appearance, Brubaker faced the Reds, giving up two runs in five innings. He and Overton were very closely matched. This is part of the calculus when making a pick based on the Reds Pirates odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Reds-Pirates MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Reds-Pirates Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-182)
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
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Why The Reds Could Cover the Spread
The Reds have won four of their last six games after their horrific 3-22 start. This team is finally playing with some confidence and getting lots of contributions up and down the batting order. Colin Moran is a white-hot hitter right now. He has 20 RBI on the season, but 11 have come in his past four games. Moran torched the Pirates on May 8 for 6 RBI on two home runs. He hit a three-run homer on Wednesday in a 14-11 Cincinnati win over the Milwaukee Brewers, enabling the Reds to win the series against the National League Central favorites.
A lot of pieces to the puzzle are finally falling into place for the Reds, who are in the midst of a good week and have to feel confident about sending Connor Overton to the mound. They have gotten solid, workmanlike performances from him and have every reason to think they will have a chance to win this game in the later innings. This is part of the landscape when thinking about a Reds Pirates pick.
Why The Pirates Could Cover the Spread
The Reds are improving. So are the Pirates. The Reds just won a series from the Brewers, but the Pirates just won a series against the National League favorite and — for many odds analysts — the World Series favorite, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Pirates got quality pitching and timely hitting in their two wins. They weren't easy wins, either. They had to deal with late-inning pressure from the Dodgers before pulling through. That's a great way to enter this series.
The Bucs have to feel good about giving the ball to J.T. Brubaker, who has steadily improved since his early-April stumbles. He has long arms and a lean pitcher's body which creates a quick, whip-like release which can hide the ball and prevent hitters from seeing the spin on the ball when it leaves the hand.
Final Reds-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup is even. Go with the better team, the Buccos.
Final Reds-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pirates -1.5
