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The Kansas City Royals take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Royals Twins prediction and pick.
Daniel Lynch gets the ball for the Royals, while Devin Smeltzer takes the bump for the Twins.
Daniel Lynch has a 4.01 ERA. He has pitched only 33 2/3 innings so far this season, a relatively small sample size. He has pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in only one of his seven starts, and he hasn't pitched more than six innings in any start. Lynch's seven starts can be broken down into two small clusters of results. In three starts encompassing 16 1/3 innings, Lynch has given up zero runs. In four other starts covering 17 1/3 innings, Lynch has allowed 16 runs. That's a dramatic gap. If there are feast-or-famine hitters in baseball, there are all-or-nothing pitchers, and Lynch would certainly qualify, making it tricky to arrive at a Royals Twins prediction.
Devin Smeltzer has a 1.74 ERA, but it applies to just two appearances and 10 1/3 innings of work. Smeltzer limited the Royals to one run on five hits in 5 1/3 innings on May 20 in Kansas City. The good news for the Twins is that Smeltzer performed well. The bad news is that the Royals got a look at him and should be more prepared this time around. It's not particularly easy to evaluate Smeltzer in the process of making a Royals Twins pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Royals-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Royals-Twins Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-140)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
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Why The Royals Could Cover the Spread
The Twins have scored three runs or fewer in six of their last 11 games. In a year when the dead baseball is reducing the number of home runs hit across the sport, teams which depend on the homer for offensive production are going through more slumps and more lulls. The Twins have had their share of struggles as they try to build their lead in the American League Central. Also, the Royals now have a better read on Minnesota starter Devin Smeltzer. Being able to see him pitch in a live game should enable Kansas City to make adjustments. The Royals should feel they can do something with this pitching matchup. It's why you shouldn't dismiss K.C. when considering a Royals Twins prediction.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
After losing to the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday and scoring just two runs in each of their last two games, the Twins are due for an offensive breakout against a relatively mediocre starting pitcher, Daniel Lynch. Even though Lynch has had his moments of brilliance in 2022, he has not been relentlessly consistent. He doesn't merit complete trust when making a Royals Twins pick.
Also, the Royals have had a terrible week, largely because their bullpen has hemorrhaged. The Twins came back from a large deficit against the Royals last Sunday, and Kansas City's bullpen then imploded a few more times in a two-game sweep loss against the Diamondbacks in Phoenix. If this is a tied game through five or six innings, it's advantage Twins.
Final Royals-Twins Prediction & Pick
The weakness of the Kansas City bullpen is too great to ignore. Unless Lynch dominates the starting matchup, the Twins should win by a few runs.
Final Royals-Twins Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5
