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The Detroit Tigers (66-95) will close out the regular season with a series finale against the Seattle Mariners (89-72) on Wednesday evening. It'll be a battle between two southpaws as Tyler Alexander (4-11) is the projected starter for Detroit and Marco Gonzales (10-15) will take the bump for Seattle. The first pitch is slated for 4:10 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Tigers-Mariners prediction and pick.
Tyler Alexander is projected to make his 17th start of the season for the Tigers. This will be his 16th appearance overall as he's bounced back and forth between the bullpen and starting rotation. In 95 innings of work, Alexander has struck out 56 while maintaining a 4.72 ERA. The twenty-eight-year-old has been much better at home (3.77 ERA) than away (5.58 ERA) which is something to keep in mind when making a Tigers-Mariners prediction. Alexander has appeared once against the Mariners this season. In 4 2/3 innings, the southpaw allowed 2 runs while striking out 4. Alexander received a loss in his last outing – a 7-0 defeat to Minnesota. In 5 innings Alexander allowed 3 runs and struck out 6 Twins.
Marco Gonzales will pick up his 32nd start of the season for the Mariners. The lefty has thrown 176 innings this season and he's gone 10-15 with a 4.14 ERA. After a lights-out first half Gonzales has watched his ERA slowly climb as the season's worn on. He enters tonight's game with a 4.14 ERA. He's been noticeably better in home games where his ERA creeps down to 3.56. The thirty-year-old has recorded one start previously against Detroit – a win. In 6 innings against the Tigers, Gonzales gave up 3 runs on 7 hits but got enough offensive support to pick up the victory. As previously mentioned, Gonzales has struggled somewhat after a stellar first half. Gonzales hasn't picked up a win since the end of August, going 0-3 in 5 September starts. In his last outing, the southpaw did not record a decision but threw 5 innings and gave up 4 runs.
Here are the Tigers-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Tigers-Mariners Odds
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-170)
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
Why The Tigers Could Cover The Spread
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Detroit was eliminated from playoff contention quite some time ago but has managed to remain somewhat frisky in the final stretch of the season. Coming into this four-game series with Seattle, the Tigers had won 4 series in a row. Despite having nothing to play for in the standings, Detroit has performed valiantly in September following a brutal August.
Detroit's offense has been abysmal to watch this season. The Tigers are last in the majors in runs scored by over 10 runs. Although their pitching staff hasn't been great, the lack of offensive firepower has largely prevented them from sustaining any continued success this season. Shortstop Javier Baez leads the team in nearly every offensive category – though that isn't saying much. Detroit's off-season prize batted .237 this season while blasting out 17 home runs and driving in 66 runs. Javy has struggled mightily against Seattle this season, though. He recorded just 3 hits across 22 at-bats.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Seattle made news in recent weeks by snapping a twenty-year playoff drought. The Mariners are the 5th seed in the American League's side of the bracket. They will take on the Blue Jays in a best-of-three starting Friday. Seattle's found success this season on the back of some clutch hitting and lights-out pitching. The Mariners finished 8th in the MLB in runs allowed. They clinched the second wild card spot despite an inconsistent offense.
While the Mariners haven't seen a ton of projected starter Tyler Alexander, third baseman Eugenio Suarez has found success against him. Albeit with a limited sample size of 5 at-bats, Suarez has hit two home runs against Alexander and worked himself a walk. This is just par for the course for Suarez. The thirty-one-year-old put together a fantastic season at the plate. In 150 games Suarez batted just .236 but made up for it in the power department. His 31 home runs and 87 runs batted in both lead the team. Suarez terrorized Detroit all season. In 25 at-bats against the Tigers, Suarez batted .360. His track record against Detroit's projected starter and their team, in general, is worth keeping in mind when making a Tigers-Mariners prediction.
Final Tigers-Mariners Prediction & Pick
The Mariners don't have anything to play for but I wouldn't expect them to take a loss easily. While Detroit has been frisky in recent weeks, the Mariners will want to enter the playoffs on a high note. Take the plus odds and run with them.
Final Tigers-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+140)
