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The Minnesota Twins look to avoid a three-game sweep as they face off with the Kansas City Royals in the finale at Kauffman Stadium. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Royals prediction and pick.
The Royals blanked the Twins 2-0 on Wednesday. The Royals mustered their two runs using small-ball baseball. Kansas City scored the first run by grounding into a double play but getting the runner home from third. Then, Adalberto Mondesi contributed an RBI with an infield single to drive home Andrew Benintendi.
Daniel Lynch tossed five shutout innings allowing four scattered hits. Additionally, the bullpen threw three scoreless innings to set up closer Scott Barlow. Finally, Barlow closed the game out on a game-ending double play to send the fans home happy. Now, Kansas City hopes to sweep their division rivals and will send Zack Grienke to the hill.
Chris Paddack went five innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits for the Twins. The bullpen tossed three scoreless innings to keep Minnesota in the game. However, the offense could not muster anything as they left five men on base. Carlos Correa went 1 for 4 and is struggling with a .190 batting average this season. Gio Urshela had no hits in four at-bats and is hitless in the series. Minnesota will go with Joe Ryan in the finale.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Royals odds:
MLB Odds: Twins-Royals Odds
Twins: -1.5 (+130)
Royals: +1.5 (+114)
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Ryan is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 2022. He tossed six innings and allowed one earned run on five hits with seven strikeouts in his last start. The lone run came on a home run. Ryan has struggled with the long ball, allowing a home run in each start. The key for him is to keep the ball in the park, which would give the Twins a better chance of contending in this game. Also, Ryan must control his pitches. He did not walk a batter in his last start but gave four hitters free passes in the first start.
Urshella and Correa need to perform better. The Twins expect both to be the cogs to their offense, yet neither has produced consistent results. However, when they excel, the Twins thrive. The pair combined to hit 5 for 9 in the last Minnesota victory, which occurred on Monday. Additionally, the bullpen must continue to shut down the Royals.
The Twins will cover the spread if Ryan replicates his recent performance. Likewise, Urshella and Correa must showcase their top-tier talent and lead the Minnesota offense out of the mini-slump. Lastly, the bullpen should contain the Royals. If the Twins accomplish these three factors, they will cover the spread.
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
Kansas City has one of the best pitchers over the last 20 years starting. Grienke does not throw many strikeouts but still pitches well enough to minimize contact. However, Grienke has struggled in his career against the Twins. He is 5-9 with a 4.63 ERA in 25 appearances. Despite that, Grienke has improved upon that stat in recent games against Minnesota. He allowed three earned runs in six innings in a start against the Twins last season while pitching for the Houston Astros.
Now, Grienke gets a chance to the Royals to a three-game sweep. He has the support of a bullpen that has excelled in recent games. Kansas City relievers have performed admirably lately, delivering four straight scoreless games. Additionally, the Royals have a plethora of emerging talent, including Bobby Witt Jr.
Witt has struggled in 2022, batting .128 over 10 games. He must pick it up to match the hype and give Kansas City the best chance to win. The Royals have one of the best catchers in baseball in Salvador Perez. Despite a recurring vision issue, Perez has consistently clobbered the baseball. He hit two home runs in the series opener despite the vision issues returning. Now, he hopes to replicate that effort from Tuesday.
The Royals will cover the spread if Grienke delivers a quality start. The bullpen looks to make it five games in a row where they have not allowed a run. Witt must improve on his hitting, and Perez looks to duplicate his performance from the first game.
Final Twins-Royals Prediction & Pick
Neither team is hitting well. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in batting average. Additionally, neither team gets on base much, either. Grienke is still an intimidating pitcher at 38 years old, and Ryan is no slouch. Both starters could last five innings and still give up two or fewer earned runs. The Twins are unlikely to blow out Grienke. Ultimately, the under is the safest bet, as both teams will make the crowd go mild once again.
Final Twins-Royals Prediction & Pick: Under 8 (-118)
